4 Year Bitcoin Cycle - The Midpoint!
Mis à jour
Greetings, fellow traders and investors. Today I would like to bring to your attention something that has caught my interest. The 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
In the chart above we can see that Bitcoin is nearing its 16-year cycle, for it's 4-year cycles.
Looking back at Bitcoin since early 2013, when it set a new high around $1100 USD, we are able to observe a pattern that is still ongoing.
According to Bitcoin's 4-year cycles, each cycle ends and begins at a 4-year cycle low. This would mean the following: The low after the previous parabolic run leading to a new ATH, accumulation towards the previous ATH, parabolic run setting a new ATH, and finally another cycle low to complete the cycle.
How are the cycles calculated?
We see from the previous 2 cycles that:
The cycle low (bearish) takes ~12 months to complete, followed by accumulation to hit and pierce the previous ATH that lasts ~24 months. Finally, the parabolic run after the previous ATH gets pierced would take ~12 months to complete, before completing the cycle with another ~12 months of distribution/markdown. Cycles are calculated from cycle low, to cycle low.
The previous 2 cycles have shown to mirror each other quite well. As of now, what we can see, is that we have completed our accumulation, and we are ready for this cycle's markup into another parabolic run before cooling off with another distribution and markdown for the cycle to complete.
It is important to note that we were 8 months early into our accumulation to complete. Could this mean that the markup will also end early? Will it be more aggressive and volatile? How will it affect the coming ~12 month cycle end?
These questions are some of many. With this post, I hope to have broadened the horizon for you, encouraged free thinking and expanded your knowledge.
Please feel free to express your opinions and thoughts in the comments below.
Thank you for your time.
(The drawings in this chart does not represent price moment, it is simply to show what we can expect in this current cycle. It is very possible for it go much higher, and much faster. The same
could be said for the markdown nearing the cycle end. Please conduct your own research to better understand the cycle and the market)
In the chart above we can see that Bitcoin is nearing its 16-year cycle, for it's 4-year cycles.
Looking back at Bitcoin since early 2013, when it set a new high around $1100 USD, we are able to observe a pattern that is still ongoing.
According to Bitcoin's 4-year cycles, each cycle ends and begins at a 4-year cycle low. This would mean the following: The low after the previous parabolic run leading to a new ATH, accumulation towards the previous ATH, parabolic run setting a new ATH, and finally another cycle low to complete the cycle.
How are the cycles calculated?
We see from the previous 2 cycles that:
The cycle low (bearish) takes ~12 months to complete, followed by accumulation to hit and pierce the previous ATH that lasts ~24 months. Finally, the parabolic run after the previous ATH gets pierced would take ~12 months to complete, before completing the cycle with another ~12 months of distribution/markdown. Cycles are calculated from cycle low, to cycle low.
The previous 2 cycles have shown to mirror each other quite well. As of now, what we can see, is that we have completed our accumulation, and we are ready for this cycle's markup into another parabolic run before cooling off with another distribution and markdown for the cycle to complete.
It is important to note that we were 8 months early into our accumulation to complete. Could this mean that the markup will also end early? Will it be more aggressive and volatile? How will it affect the coming ~12 month cycle end?
These questions are some of many. With this post, I hope to have broadened the horizon for you, encouraged free thinking and expanded your knowledge.
Please feel free to express your opinions and thoughts in the comments below.
Thank you for your time.
(The drawings in this chart does not represent price moment, it is simply to show what we can expect in this current cycle. It is very possible for it go much higher, and much faster. The same
could be said for the markdown nearing the cycle end. Please conduct your own research to better understand the cycle and the market)
Transaction en cours
Supposed ATH break (36 weeks) hitNote
Amazing mirror with previous cycle. 28 month breakout rejected in in March, insisted on 36 months again, and it happened.
We also observe the 15 months of consolidation not being sufficient, and was made complete with 23 months of consolidation much like the previous cycle.
We have a strong possibility now of the next top / 12 month rally end to be Q4 of 2025, possibly October or November before distribution in 2026.
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