BTC: The price getting rejected from the 200D SMA!

12 oct. 2023

It's no surprise that the price has been rejected from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) multiple times. Historically, the 200-day SMA has acted as either a support or resistance level, depending on whether the price is above or below it. Since the current price is below the 200-day SMA, there is a high likelihood that the price will continue to move lower at some point. Another bearish sign is that the price broke below the rising channel, which suggests a further decline.


Here's the previous post:

" Here's a Quick outlook for BTC. This week, there hasn't been much movement, and the price continues within the rising channel. Previously, we saw a move below the 200D SMA, and the price hasn't managed to break back above it as the SMA is now acting as resistance. One way to predict market changes is by using the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If the closing price drops below the 200-day SMA, it's likely that the market will continue to decline, and the opposite is also true. Currently, the price is below the 200-day SMA, which suggests that it may fall further until it rises above the SMA.
It is also worth mentioning that a rising channel often breaks to the downside. Given the current situation where the price is below the 200D SMA and touching significant resistance while within a rising channel, it is expected that the price may experience a decline in the coming weeks. "

There are several indicators and global economic events that suggest the market will continue to decline. For example, median home prices are contracting sharply, reaching levels last seen in 1970 and 2008, both years which experienced severe economic downturns.

It's important to note that there are many unfilled gaps below the current price. These gaps can act as magnets and pull the price down to fill them at some point. Therefore, it's recommended to keep a close eye on them.

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Based on current market sentiment, it appears that a more significant downturn is on the horizon. This could result in revisiting prior lows (15k-16k) or even reaching new lows within the range of 10k-13k. However, after this decline, there is a good chance that the market will shift towards a bullish phase. My prediction is that BTC will reach its lowest point within the next six months, but recovery is expected by Summer 2024. It is recommended to have a strategy in place for this potential downturn.

Many are optimistic about BTC's price, yet it's crucial to recognize that the occasional rallies are creating lower highs. For a robust bullish case, establishing a higher high and higher low is essential. Beyond BTC's price action, numerous indicators suggest a substantial market drop is looming. Consider, for instance, the rate of permanent job losses; each spike in this metric has been followed by a recession, and it’s escalating sharply.

14 oct. 2023

Note

There is a serious warning that the likelihood of a recession happening in 2024 has now exceeded 60%. This level of risk has only been observed twice since 1960, and on both occasions, it led to severe economic downturns. Despite the Federal Reserve's belief in a "Soft Landing," leading economic indicators are strongly pointing towards a recession.