The Last Bear Rally is here! Elliotical approach to BTCUSD.
Mis à jour
Hello Traders!
1. The idea was originally published on 19th Feb and will be attached.
2. We see a break of the 25250 high as we had expected in the previously published idea.
3. BTCUSD tested 161.8% level and fell over 2000 points in a couple of hours. Not a mere resistance, it's much more than that.
4. Some consolidation is expected before we place our sell orders. From when this idea gets published, I expect a move up in the hourly tf above the said red line. Once the market moves beyond the red line and gives a closing in the 1hr tf, we can place sell orders below the Red Line.
5. One thing I've learned the most in trading experience is that when the whole lot is buying like it's a bull run that never ends, we sell. And when the whole lot is absolutely pessimistic about the market, we buy. Obviously, we should back this psychology with fundamental or technical analysis.
Do use proper risk management.
Happy Trading!
Profits,
Market's Mechanic.
1. The idea was originally published on 19th Feb and will be attached.
2. We see a break of the 25250 high as we had expected in the previously published idea.
3. BTCUSD tested 161.8% level and fell over 2000 points in a couple of hours. Not a mere resistance, it's much more than that.
4. Some consolidation is expected before we place our sell orders. From when this idea gets published, I expect a move up in the hourly tf above the said red line. Once the market moves beyond the red line and gives a closing in the 1hr tf, we can place sell orders below the Red Line.
5. One thing I've learned the most in trading experience is that when the whole lot is buying like it's a bull run that never ends, we sell. And when the whole lot is absolutely pessimistic about the market, we buy. Obviously, we should back this psychology with fundamental or technical analysis.
Do use proper risk management.
Happy Trading!
Profits,
Market's Mechanic.
Note
The market has broken the 25250 high again. The plan is almost set. The volume is significantly reduced even as the market is rising up slowly. This should be the last bull trap that we see. I will post an update about it as soon as the market develops a more clear picture. Timing is the lock. Patience holds the key.Note
Everything has gone along as we expected. Sell orders shall now be placed just below the red line. Proper risk management is a must. Happy Trading!Note
There is an alternate entry point as well. But this happens to be riskier than the original setup, way riskier. We have a bearish inside candle in 1 hr tf after a large bullish candle. Entry can be taken at the low of this candle with a stop set at the swing high of 26500 or can be set using ATR. I would like to warn you again that this is riskier than selling below the red line. Take a deep breath, set your intention right, understand the risk, then open a position.Transaction en cours
I've initiated a small short entry at the low of the inside candle formed in the 2 hr timeframe. Safer entry still stands below the red line.Happy Trading.
Note
The market is consolidating after a new swing high. It appears that a triangle is in formation. If the market executes the proposed triangle, we're looking at small upmove from there and another possible break of high. Also, a triangle is a good sign. Triangles give out the last of the impulse left. Accordingly, it should mark the end of this bullish impulse. I am repeating this. Timing is the lock. Patience holds the key. Be patient. Note
The drying up of volume even as BTC is making higher highs gives us a stronger view of the bearish picture. Be patient people. Note
The stage is set. The New Red Line (26100) is where we'll place our new sell orders but only after a strong consolidation in 4 hr timeframe. Wait and let the market commit to you before you commit to the market. Note
We have the formation of an inside candle after a solid bullish candle on the daily timeframe. The volume of the bullish candle is around 600k and that of the inside candle is 300k. Way high for a candle that small. There are two shorting pictures from here; either the market will break the high of the inside candle and retrace back in to break the low of it and continue down or the market will just simply drop down.
Remember that this is a swing trade and will take time to unfold.
Note
Also, as I've mentioned in my info, all the setups that I share are for educational purposes. Take the advice of your financial advisor before taking any financial risk.Note
The market situation is giving us a greater, better opportunity to enter. BTC is presenting the bulls with the last opportunity to steer clear.Note
Wait for a closing below the red line in 30min tf or 1hr tf before executing the trade.Note
All the best Traders! That time is here. SHORT!!!Note
The market is in consolidation as the volume of the market stands significantly reduced. The tussle between buyers and sellers is on. It should continue for some time. One should not take any reckless action here. Someone has said that when you're working a job, you can make things better with some sort of action initiative. People come into trading with the same mindset. Trading requires lots of inaction and patience. Trading is a business. Treat it the same.Note
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The market has given an extensive bullish rally. Having created such momentum, the market is bound to slow down a little. The buyers are slowly depleting and the last of the buyers are trying to push the market to higher highs. The current consolidation, on an honest note, gives two pictures. One, the market would soon take a fine drop from where it is, and two, the market may go on to create a higher high before giving an impulse down. The possibility of both is in the picture. Just like I said earlier, this is a swing move and will take some time to unfold.Note
The market has taken a sharp fall after a long time of consolidation. It has also made a big indecision candle on the daily timeframe. The volume that had been reducing has now finally given a breakout and we see amplified selling following yesterday's press conference by the Feds (USA). I do still expect a bit more consolidation before the move intensifies.Note
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We might see one more bullish rally at this point.Note
As I said in the last update, we might see one more bullish rally now. The market has cleared a vital resistance zone and is moving to 28400 resistance. If it is able to clear that zone, we can see it making higher highs to the 29200-29400 zone. Also, take a look at how reduced the volumes are.In general, the market will try pushing to higher grounds until most buyers get exhausted and the sellers regain control. That is exactly what is happening right now in BTC.
Note
One should try to understand the market on their own if they have the availability of time. The markets are like the ocean, anybody can swim, anybody can fish, anybody can dive deep into its depth for pearls, but you need to master swimming before you even touch these waters. The shore is a safer place for those who don't/can't swim.Note
The market is in a tight zone for the last 10 days. A breakdown or breakout will decide the further mood of the market. This analysis will stand nullified if BTC crosses the 33k mark. Though, it does seem like there might be some energy left in the buyers. The longer the consolidation, the more the buyers will start rejecting the uptrend and help the next sell rally.Note
A higher high picture remains.Note
The market is about to test an important resistance zone. We may have been wrong about 161.8% but the market can have a more elongated C wave. Also, the last bullish impulse appears to have been from a triangle. Triangles usually give out the last remaining push to the market before reversing. This analysis will be nullified only when BTC crosses the 33k mark. Until that, we stick with this. Thank you all for the attention and patience.Note
Check these volumes! BTC rose 4000 points from 9th April '23 till date with daily volumes ranging from just 30k to 60k. The rise from 11th March '23 to 17th March '23 recorded daily volumes of over 300k to 600k. That's 10 times the volume we are seeing now. Caveat Emptor!Note
Such low volumes have not been seen in BTC since May 2022.Note
We have a good fall from 31000 high to around 27000. On the weekly timeframe, we have a bearish engulfing and breakout failure, the confirmation of both will be the break of the 27150 low that the market has currently created. On the daily and 4-hour timeframes, it appears that the market will take a retest of 28800 resistance before continuing the impulse down.
Note
I hadn't heard about ICT until a person commented on this very post regarding ICT. I am thankful to that person. I have been watching ICT videos for some time now, merely just scratching the surface. A lot more to go. I saw the ICT Market Maker sell model and came straight to analyse the same for BTC. The model seems to be taking place, though we are yet to have a final confirmation. We do have one confluence and that is the MACD divergence just as ICT has stated in one of his videos. Attaching the chart for reference. I would again like to point out that I have just started to learn ICT concepts and this is merely an observation.
Please take financial risks after taking advice from certified financial advisors.
Note
Just for the sake of conjecture, I suspect that a higher high remains. Let's see.Note
Note
With all due respect, I no longer follow the Elliotical Approach. I no longer use Elliot Wave to understand the market structure. Here is the update on BTCUSD using ICT.The monthly breaker has already been tested and we can expect a retracement upto the weekly OB (37500). The only picture that does remain of the prior Elliot analysis is the breakdown of BTC that is still expected. The market is expected to test the monthly bullish OB at 12000.
Note
The prior Elliot stop (33k) has also been marked on the chart. Positively, it should be taken.
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