BTC - TWO Theories - ELLIOT Wave vs FRACTAL

9 sept.

Elliot Wave Theory is an absolute favorite of mine, combined with Wyckoff Method and chart analysis (trendlines and technical indicators). If you've been following; you'll know I've been speaking of a multi-month cycle, specifically a multi month corrective wave before the final impulse wave up (4-5).

Considering we're still in that corrective phase, let's take a look at TWO options from here:

Option 1, is we retrace around -50%, same as last time. However, this would pose an issue - if we drop lower than (1), it invalidates the Elliot Wave Theory, and also invalidates the bullish cycle. The second problem, is that the previous cycle's increase (2-3) was MUCH bigger than the current 2-3 we are observing. This brings us to option 2.


Option 2, is that we retrace around the same ratio as the previous cycle. To calculate the ration, we need to see what % we retraced and compare it to the % increase.
We increased 1533.92% (2-3)and retraced 55.25% (3-4). That means it's a 3.6% correction compared to the increase.
For the current cycle, we increased 357.27% (2-3) and retraced 33.76% (3-4). This gives us a 9,45% correction - three times as much as the previous cycle.


You can take this two ways - either we're following a 50% correction, OR we're not falling lower than the current point 4 which is around 49K.

Share your thoughts!

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