Short

Bitcoin Diamond pattern formed. Watch the breakout!

Mis à jour

Bitcoin Diamond pattern formed. Watch the breakout!

Diamond pattern formed as expected.

Dear friends,
As I wrote in my previous update, a diamond pattern has indeed been formed. Now look at the breakout. It is expected to be down but if not then the stop level is at 33200.
I expect at least 25000 USD as a price target for Bitcoin but it could easily go lower based on the chart at that time. Step by step instead of too long targets. The price and market is dynamic so as a trader you need to adjust yourself continuously.
The head and shoulder formations from previous analysis are all valid but they all points to the same target. So be sure to check out the previous updates as well.

If you appreciate my work then it's nice to get a like and please follow me for new uodates.

Please share your thoughts and idea's below dear friends. What do you think and why do you think it with or without a chart.

I wish you all good luck with trading!

Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!

--->> Dear friends please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚

Note

Of course if the Diamond break to the upside, we possibly get a short pauze in the decline of Bitcoin. The chart will show the direction. Watch always for HH HL LH LL patterns for the trend. Important is that you look for this a t the right timeframe. For example; higher highs and higher lows on a 5 minute chart is not the same as on a 1 hour, 4 hour time frame.
Good luck dear friends!

Transaction en cours

Here you see the valid and already re-tested Head and shoulder pattern. What is happening now is that we are on the way to the target.
So most patterns you see will be just continuation patterns. Even if not, they will probably just pause the declining price.

Note

I redrew the diamond a little bit. That's exactly how it is! Now we just have to wait and see what will happen and what direction the breakout will be. If it is upwards keep in mind a bull trap because we get to see those on a regular basis. Also the trend is still down by the LH and LL.

Good luck dear friends!

Transaction en cours

There is no breakout yet and look at the volume. It is declining while price rise.
Bearish sign is this.
Abreakout must be with good volume and a more than average candle.
You can also see a bearish wedge on the right side of the triangle.

Transaction en cours

Update

Dear Friends,

The diamond from the previous uodate has broken out upwards but as I already wrote, this is probably a bull trap as we have seen so many. This is because the trend is still down. HH HL LL LH method 4 hour charts. New patterns are formed, a bearflag / bearish rising wedge and a triangle. On you to think about which direction it will go.

Wish you all succes and good profits!

Transaction en cours

Good evening dear friends,

The diamond is now no longer important. The pattern has now been transformed into a bearflag. This happens constantly, patterns change.
For example, a sysmetrical triangle can transform to a ascending triangle. A wedge to a trend channel. A failing head shoulder formation to a wedge etc.

I trade what I see and not what I think. No biases, not bearish not bullish either. I don't care at all if it goes up or down as long as you follow the trend!
Too many signals and too much information from different sources make it also difficult in special for new traders. However the market is complex and 50% thinks it goes up and 50 % thinks it goes down. That is why the price is in balance.

So when does this trend change then? I have indicated that in the chart. When the level of 33129 is broken through with the close of a 4 hour candle things are going to look different. As long as that has not happened there is no rising trend. There can be a rising trend on a shorter time frame. For example on the 15 minute chart but I am talking about the 4 hour timeframe here.
The shorter the time frame the more noise and the smaller the moves.

Also the volume is low and cannot sustain a rising trend. For that, the volume has to grow while the price is rising. Everything can happen, we will just see what happens and then act as the chart show the direction itself

Good luck dear friends!

Note

Weekly candle

Here is a weekly chart of Bitcoin. What do you guys think of this red weekly candle. It is a full candle with almost no wick. A wick below the candle is a rejected level.
The monthly looks also the same.

When in doubt about a trend, zoom out for another look io the price.

Transaction en cours

The neckline of the HS formation and the lower trendline of the bearflag has been broken and the first target is now USD 30000.

Good luck dear friends

Transaction en cours

Note

What is next with Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has reached our SHORT target and even went down to 29249 usd. Personally, I do not expect the trend to turn positive now. We will see that by the price movement. If Bitcoin sets a higher high then that could be the start of a short-term uptrend but again, I don't expect that.

In short:

If bitcoin manages to rise above 30000 then the next level is 30430 to max 31000. After that the trend should continue downwards.

If bitcoin does not manage to break through the 30000 level then the decline will continue.

Don't buy too soon friends because in my opinion the decline is not over yet.
Do not forget that 16 months ago the price of one bitcoin was 3850 and this is not a type error;-)

As an advice, always do your own research and never trade blindly on any idea!
If you use a max risk of 1-2% with automatic stop loss then you have so much less risk to end with a liquidation or zero account. It is maybe not spectacular this 2% max risk but it protect your account!

Good luck with trading dear friends and if you like my work please follow me and give me a like which is good for my motivation to continue this work!

Note

update

Dear friends,

This pullback was expected as the 29-30k level is a strong support level. The falling trendline is a strong resistance.
Only on a breakout with volume and a pullback to test the red trendline is a LONG position recommended up to 36600. From there, another very heavy resistance awaits.

However, I expect a deeper decline from the red descending trend line to at least 28810. Then we should see if this level is broken downwards and we enter a new analysis with much lower targets.
If Bitcoin breaks out above the red trend line we can expect a rise to 36600. There I still expect a continuation of the decline again unless the price breaks through upwards there as well. Then the top of the range will come into view again. Eventually we will get another bull market if the price can break through the 42k level with high volume,

We are not that far yet and it is also very questionable whether this will happen but the chart and the price dictate the direction. I am not a bull nor a bear just follow and anticipate what can happen. I have not a single bias or emotion if it goes up or down.
Eventually we will get another bull market if the price can break through the 42k level with high volume,

Good luck dear friends!

Transaction en cours

Short update.

Not much changed since the last update. The levels are still valid, the older analysis also.
Bitcoin is forming now an inversed Head and shoulders but this is probably not working out because there is no volume anymore. Only with a break trough the blue trendline and a retest the situation improves for the very short time.
So it looks like the trend will continue as it was untill we see a move with volume to the upside.
Wish you all good trading dear friends!

Note

An update
Dear friends,
If Bitcoin goes through the 33600 then I expect at least a target of 36600 usd. Beware though because bull traps have been many and it could happen here too. The big boys make a game out of it to mislead every trader, therefore, also keep an eye on the trading volume.

On a break down from the rising wedge I see the old low again as a target at 28800 but if Bitcoin goes below that, we will get an acceleration to 25000 as the first target. Note an uptrend there is a pullback, not a trend reversal.

In short
- Upon breakout of the orange trendline and ONLY after a re-test of this tread line LONG to 36600. Risk exists for a bulltrap.
- Upon breakout of the wedge downwards AND the black trendline a continuation of the decline to the old low at 28800.

Note

Friends, do not go long before a re-test of broken trendline is my advice! The orange trandline is not yet broken but it is very close. Prices always re-test so no need for any fomo or emotions.

Watch out for beartraps and that is why a re-test is the only way to play this more safe. Then there are many resistance levels to break as seen in the chart. Once a resistance is broken it become a support level and so the next resistance will be next target.
First 33600 then 36600 then 41-42000. After that it will be a nice bullish scenario.
But below 28800 we will see a very nasty dive. Just be aware of this!
By the way, I have no bias, not bullish, not bearish. Just trade what you see and certainly not what you are thinking of.

Succes dear friends!

Note

update
Dear Friends,

To buy or not to buy? That, of course, is entirely everyone's personal choice. In my analysis, my target was almost reached at 400 points. Since then we have again seen a similar price trend as we have seen recently.
A divergence has now occurred on the 1 hour chart with the RSI in overbought condition. A pullback is to be expected now. We are also seeing a bearish rising wedge. Be aware that all previous wedges caused a pullback. Will it this time be different?

My advice for now is patience until a pullback to at least the neckline of the inversed head and shoulders pattern, then a tight stop loss and target to 36600. Then as explained in the previous update see if this resistance is broken. If yes then Bitcoin will go to the next resistance.

We are still in the trading range and will have to deal with complex rises and falls. That is the consequence of this long trading range which in my opinion in Wyckoff means a re-distribution and not an accumulation. Nevertheless there are movements which you can profit from but I only see a solid rise above 42000.

One of the things we have seen also in the past is the bull and bear traps. Will it happen this time or not is difficult to say now but you can protect yourself with tight stops.

About trends rising or falling an important thing to remember. Which timeframe do you use. On a 15 minute there can be a rising trend perfect to trade where it is on the 4 hour a clear downtrend. The best thing to do is keep it simple! Look at one higher time frame, what is the trend on this higher timeframe and than on the short timeframe wait for a counter trade. That is a pullback. This way you trade with the larger timeframe in your direction and buy pullbacks. That is a very good method only the timeframe sets to trade is personal. Do not forget that the smaller you go the more noise and the more you need constant for your pc to monitor

Last but not least, I only give idea's here and not advice to trade because you always have to do your own analysis. Any idea can be helpfull in this but to many idea's will be confusing because at any moment there will be traders who are go for Long setups and others for short setups.

Good luck dear friends!

Note

Update -

Hello friends,
Bitcoin is still moving upwards in the wedge with a target 36600. There was no pullback to the neckline yet and there is a bearish divergence so that can happen today.
IF Bitcoin cross the level of 36600 then we will probably see the old level 41k however this tradingrange is getting weaker with time a lot of time passing nd there are a lot of resistances to take. Just use tight stops in this market to minimalize the risk for a sudden drop!

Succes dear friends and if you like my work please give me a like or follow for updates!

Note

Dear friends,
On the daily timeframe we see there is a wedge in combination with declining volume. That is a bearish sign. The neckline still need to be re-tested so that would come in not as surprise.

PegasusTechCharts

Publications connexes

Clause de non-responsabilité

Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.