BTC - Risk Reward Opportunity SHORT TERM!
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What a run, hit $5800+ in a day. We had a target of $6000 and we seemed to be starting to consolidate. I will be LOOKING to sell here as the risk to reward is just too good to pass up.
I want to be clear.
1) We can still surge higher so I will buy back what I am selling around $6000 and will be monitoring the consolidation trade and will not be leaving my computer
2) I'm risking around $250 for the potential for $1500-$2200 (or greater), $4000-$4400 is the target range but I will monitor that when it gets there but $3500 is also a target providing a great Risk to Reward scenario.
3) $5000 is critical to hold for the bulls, so expect resistance there.
4) Below $4000 the correction comes back into play. (WXY shown on previous charts)
Regardless what you think or feel about BTC this is a risk reward trade. Sell into strength, buy into weakness. Can it go UP? YES I AM AWARE OF THIS. But it is more likely to correct at this point to the mid to low $4000's if $5000 does not provide support. I will be watching that level carefully for a reversal if and when it hits.
If you disagree that is fine, but the risk reward is to great to pass up in my opinion. If you are trading margins, well you are on you own. I am trading a core position, I think margin trading in a coin like this can be devastating regardless of stops. Per my own rules I MUST buy back my coins at 6000ish, and I will monitor there. So this is a risky trade, but our $6000 target was just about hit and looking at how it is reacting here I feel comfortable with the trade.
With an 1 to 8 risk to reward I only need to be right 1 out of 8 times to break even. This is why I don't care about the emotions, I don't care about the future chart going to 70k as I posted last night. I am playing the short term market cycle. The FOMO effect. This is why I say it's not about being right or wrong, it's about being patient and waiting for good risk to reward setup and trading them.
Probabilities, even if this is a 20% chance correction, that means it happens 1 out of 5 times. With a risk to reward of 1 to 8, trading these consistently will provide profits in the LONG RUN. In my opinion it is better than 50% we correct from here now that the $6000 range was hit. We can still surge up which is why I am looking for consolidation, watching the trend, drawing my res support lines, and will trade the breakdown as I have shown on previous charts. This increases the odds of being correct and getting in to early, but will shave into the risk reward a little. I'm giving up a little money to wait for confirmation!
Thanks
I want to be clear.
1) We can still surge higher so I will buy back what I am selling around $6000 and will be monitoring the consolidation trade and will not be leaving my computer
2) I'm risking around $250 for the potential for $1500-$2200 (or greater), $4000-$4400 is the target range but I will monitor that when it gets there but $3500 is also a target providing a great Risk to Reward scenario.
3) $5000 is critical to hold for the bulls, so expect resistance there.
4) Below $4000 the correction comes back into play. (WXY shown on previous charts)
Regardless what you think or feel about BTC this is a risk reward trade. Sell into strength, buy into weakness. Can it go UP? YES I AM AWARE OF THIS. But it is more likely to correct at this point to the mid to low $4000's if $5000 does not provide support. I will be watching that level carefully for a reversal if and when it hits.
If you disagree that is fine, but the risk reward is to great to pass up in my opinion. If you are trading margins, well you are on you own. I am trading a core position, I think margin trading in a coin like this can be devastating regardless of stops. Per my own rules I MUST buy back my coins at 6000ish, and I will monitor there. So this is a risky trade, but our $6000 target was just about hit and looking at how it is reacting here I feel comfortable with the trade.
With an 1 to 8 risk to reward I only need to be right 1 out of 8 times to break even. This is why I don't care about the emotions, I don't care about the future chart going to 70k as I posted last night. I am playing the short term market cycle. The FOMO effect. This is why I say it's not about being right or wrong, it's about being patient and waiting for good risk to reward setup and trading them.
Probabilities, even if this is a 20% chance correction, that means it happens 1 out of 5 times. With a risk to reward of 1 to 8, trading these consistently will provide profits in the LONG RUN. In my opinion it is better than 50% we correct from here now that the $6000 range was hit. We can still surge up which is why I am looking for consolidation, watching the trend, drawing my res support lines, and will trade the breakdown as I have shown on previous charts. This increases the odds of being correct and getting in to early, but will shave into the risk reward a little. I'm giving up a little money to wait for confirmation!
Thanks
Note
Note
I would recommend reading MarcPMarkets article yesterday on "BTC -Perspecitive and Levels". I thought this was a great article and Point on!
Note
Four things,First I have NOT sold yet, anyone following me for a while knows I want consolidation and confirmation. I do not just pick a level and buy or sell as many are used to seeing.
Second I exit trades quickly, and I will not see more than a 1% loss on any trade. Anyone that has followed knows how quickly I exit. So if you do not understand how I use the consolidation boxes, what I will be monitoring etc during the trade you wouldn't understand.
Third I am very aware of the bitcoin gold, the chart is telling me that it is priced in already. I think marcP had a great idea of buying alt-coins. I like this and am looking at several such as ZEC and DASH among others. Anything goes wrong with either fork, it's down for sure.
Fourth READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE BEFORE COMMENTING IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THIS IS A SHORT TERM TRADE THEN READ MY LONG TERM ARTICLE I WROTE LAST NIGHT!!!!
Note
If your a daytrader I do like this setup and did buy the breakout. will watch at $5800 but volume is low, so it may fail.Note
Failed out of trade. This was a day trade trying to scalp a few buck. got out as soon as it failed. Will look to reenter!
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