BTC Prj.2019.P02E08. Coming to a decisive point!
Mis à jour
The Question everyone is asking: Where from here and what is the approach to take?
Note: I have a number of people I watch and listen to, to come to these conclusions.
I like to get many good TA's perspective before making up my mind.
A number of observations:
> The price hung around and above the sloping support (refer to the fib fan lines (value 2/1) with no strong uptrend indicating it will be broken and it did.
> We have established that we have hit the 61.8% fib. retracement level (from the holistic perspective) - 14K mark (Goldern ratio), hence a correction is usually to follow (refer to the weekly chart).
> The monthly RSI is overbought or its momentum is starting to dissipate (its starting to drop)
> Daily RSI looks like a nice correction, nice pattern. 46.5% is what we should watch.
> Daily MACD reflecting nicely with the price trend, for more correction. We see the cross and the histogram equating the same.
> We have broken 11k key structural levels
> Momentum indicator on the monthly chart is diminishing, meaning strength is dropping off.
Looking at the key moving averages
> The weekly 8 EMA is still acting as support.
> The 21 weekly EMA is gone past the 55 EMA and is roughly at 7300 price range at the 618 fib level. Key ratio and support and a strong bullish signal.
> The trend is still within the bullish channel, confirmed by the pitchfork boundaries
> Weekly chart, dojji followed by a red candle stick so far
> Daily chart, we have the 21 EMA still supporting
> 4 Hrly chart, we have the 55 EMA broken
> The 618 fib level or 0.382 is hitting the 9400 price. We also have this as the prior resistance area and a strong support.
> We have this as a key FIB LEVEL of 0.382 on the grander scale.
> We also have the 200 EMA on the 4 HRLY chart.
> One can see a number of tools used: pitchfork, fib. fan and fib circle all complimenting and confirming key levels. This gives confidence at what levels we should see it will likely take and move up or down from (support and reject\resistance)
Thoughts:
**Yesterdays thoughts**
>If the sloping support (refer to the fib fan lines (value 2/1) doesn't hold, at 10800, and the 4 hrly candle doesn't open and close above this trend line, then expect 10400 level.
If this doesn't hold, then it would be the 10K Level.
>We also know that the CME contracts have a gap in this range, 10,000 to 10600 range, to be filled.
>We should see an 3 step \zig zag to the key MAs. A ABC type move and see it hold. Hence the 21 weekly MA must see a bounce off to view it as a retracement and not a bear trend.
Note of caution
If we see a move below the 21 weekly MA, that it doesn't hold, we will most likely see much more serious drop and one should consider it bearish (maybe as a C wave play and we just saw the B wave).
Hence an open and close of a weekly candle below the weekly 21 EMA, then this is a serious scenario in play.
Today's thoughts
Daily chart, we have the 21 EMA still supporting. We would like to see an open and close above this level to confirm bullish momentum is back.
The 55 EMA is the next line of support and will most likely see a bounce at the 9400 value. An open and close below the daily 21 EMA is a indication for more lows. 8500 range or lower.
The 21 EMA crossing the 55 EMA, is not good for the short term meaning more bearish sign.
CME contracts have a gap has been filled. Another gap is at the 8500 to 8800 range.
Yet to touch the 8 EMA or 21 EMA. As you can observe the 8 EMA is touched on a number of occasions.
> Daily chart, we have the 21 EMA still supporting 10390 and will most likely close below this.
> 9400 price range is more probable at this point than the 8500 range
DAILY Chart
tradingview.com/chart/TxrmBU5l/
4 HRLY Charts:
WEEKLY Chart:
MONTHLY Chart:
Note: I have a number of people I watch and listen to, to come to these conclusions.
I like to get many good TA's perspective before making up my mind.
A number of observations:
> The price hung around and above the sloping support (refer to the fib fan lines (value 2/1) with no strong uptrend indicating it will be broken and it did.
> We have established that we have hit the 61.8% fib. retracement level (from the holistic perspective) - 14K mark (Goldern ratio), hence a correction is usually to follow (refer to the weekly chart).
> The monthly RSI is overbought or its momentum is starting to dissipate (its starting to drop)
> Daily RSI looks like a nice correction, nice pattern. 46.5% is what we should watch.
> Daily MACD reflecting nicely with the price trend, for more correction. We see the cross and the histogram equating the same.
> We have broken 11k key structural levels
> Momentum indicator on the monthly chart is diminishing, meaning strength is dropping off.
Looking at the key moving averages
> The weekly 8 EMA is still acting as support.
> The 21 weekly EMA is gone past the 55 EMA and is roughly at 7300 price range at the 618 fib level. Key ratio and support and a strong bullish signal.
> The trend is still within the bullish channel, confirmed by the pitchfork boundaries
> Weekly chart, dojji followed by a red candle stick so far
> Daily chart, we have the 21 EMA still supporting
> 4 Hrly chart, we have the 55 EMA broken
> The 618 fib level or 0.382 is hitting the 9400 price. We also have this as the prior resistance area and a strong support.
> We have this as a key FIB LEVEL of 0.382 on the grander scale.
> We also have the 200 EMA on the 4 HRLY chart.
> One can see a number of tools used: pitchfork, fib. fan and fib circle all complimenting and confirming key levels. This gives confidence at what levels we should see it will likely take and move up or down from (support and reject\resistance)
Thoughts:
**Yesterdays thoughts**
>If the sloping support (refer to the fib fan lines (value 2/1) doesn't hold, at 10800, and the 4 hrly candle doesn't open and close above this trend line, then expect 10400 level.
If this doesn't hold, then it would be the 10K Level.
>We also know that the CME contracts have a gap in this range, 10,000 to 10600 range, to be filled.
>We should see an 3 step \zig zag to the key MAs. A ABC type move and see it hold. Hence the 21 weekly MA must see a bounce off to view it as a retracement and not a bear trend.
Note of caution
If we see a move below the 21 weekly MA, that it doesn't hold, we will most likely see much more serious drop and one should consider it bearish (maybe as a C wave play and we just saw the B wave).
Hence an open and close of a weekly candle below the weekly 21 EMA, then this is a serious scenario in play.
Today's thoughts
Daily chart, we have the 21 EMA still supporting. We would like to see an open and close above this level to confirm bullish momentum is back.
The 55 EMA is the next line of support and will most likely see a bounce at the 9400 value. An open and close below the daily 21 EMA is a indication for more lows. 8500 range or lower.
The 21 EMA crossing the 55 EMA, is not good for the short term meaning more bearish sign.
CME contracts have a gap has been filled. Another gap is at the 8500 to 8800 range.
Yet to touch the 8 EMA or 21 EMA. As you can observe the 8 EMA is touched on a number of occasions.
> Daily chart, we have the 21 EMA still supporting 10390 and will most likely close below this.
> 9400 price range is more probable at this point than the 8500 range
DAILY Chart
tradingview.com/chart/TxrmBU5l/
4 HRLY Charts:
WEEKLY Chart:
MONTHLY Chart:
Note
The 10K level is putting up a fight, but when one looks at the diminishing volume and the momentum, its likely the next level will be tested. The worry here is as each level crumbles, people will sit back to observe no more decline, or stability. Weekly charts:
RSI - approaching the support line
MACD - histogram hinting a change in direction.
Some profiting opportunities in between.
Note
1 HRLY Chart, still finding resistance of the 21 EMANote
Progress update: Hovering around the support\resistance of 0.382 or 618 retracement without any decisive move, means it will drop. One can see the bearish pattern forming. 4 Hrly MACD supports this.Note
Late 4 hours we have a change, a bullish stance. If we have a open and close of a 4 Hrly candle above the 100 EMA, or the 55 EMA on the Hrly, we can reverse the trend. I think its close but volume doesn't seem to quite get there. Either way, we must wait before making the entry.Note
Volume has increased and its not going away from the resistance line. I would say it will drop back a bit forming a reverse H&S, and pow, a big break out. Must get ready to enter. Note
So let me explain my thoughts.Currently this candle has got my attention, for at least for a short $$.
I'm looking for a clear pass above the 10700, (open and close on 4 HRLY) in order to approach the 11,500.
Currently we are observing a correction due to the divergence at the 10800 range. I'm keen to see how far it goes down and for it to return back up strong. If this does happen, I'm in for the completion of the Inv H&S or W shape, both give good results and hence skim some profit.
I'm not going to go long until I see a price above 11500, with a open and close candle on the 4 HRLY. Obviously I will look at the MACD histagram and I also use the ADX and DI indicator to confirm. If I see other indicators like the shape of the candles leading to this point as well as the volume. All these give an indication as to how bullish the approach is. So one cannot just go with shape and the shape is subjective. Its useful to visualise but for now, I'm just looking to take profit, not long.
I still have reservation that it will bypass the 9400 range and go down to the 8400s.
We also see somewhat a large wedge formation in the grand scheme of this which I will post after these remarks.
Note
A number of possibilitiesIf the current events don't eventuate to a 11500 formation > then we are headed to the 9400 range
If the current scenario does do a inv. H&S, being 11500 hit and down, which would widen the downward wedge, then we have plenty more possibilities.
Note
Note
Changed my mind about where its heading. the 9400 is now unlikely and as the chart indicates, either 10800 or 10100. We can only make a decision if and when it reaches this point. Also pay note to the bigger picture, descending wedge, a bull formation. So far, I got the 11500 resistance right, Sold when I saw it struggle and created an upward wedge with a divergence. Hence exited at the 11400 range. Question is where do we enter.Note
Note
Guess what, if this happens, inverse H&S. wow. 14K
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Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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