The fall of BTC before the rise

I jumped in this sell at 43,519 after it failed to make a higher high. My analysis is that BTC will fall to 31k or lower. prior history has shown large drops before the halving. there is lots of liquidity left from the impulse move up at 30401 area. i am holding BTC short till 31k. In this zone you will also see the daily trend line and demand zone line up.