BTC (Prj.2019.P03.E12). 1 of many on what to look for?

14 août 2019

How to play this chart is difficult as many would agree.
Going long on BTC is not what this is about.
Taking the right steps at the right stage allows us to a) not miss out b) reduce risk\loss of $
Many people are bullish on BTC and so am I but this doesn't help for those who want to maximise their buy in.
So what information these people give us, so called experts, stick to the MACRO level. I'm sure many are interested in the MICRO level.
I don't claim to be good or right, but I like to use the power of observation and logic.

I have to admit, bearish divergences is what stops me going in and bullish divergences in the 2 hrly and above allow me to go in with more confidence, along with alignment with the main fib levels and MA's.

In this situation, I have this hypothesis but not the only one to help me decide.

a) we are over extended on the 4 HRLY RSI and we should be close to over sold (even if its for shorting)
b) previous support lines should or could be used to identify potential entry points
c) look for bullish divergences at these key support lines or fib. levels or MA's

Hence I have market on this chart, what to watch for before entering. Its not the only areas but it is on my check list that I would like to share.

The rest is based on keen observation and gut intuition.

All the best.

Cheers,
SS.

Associated charts:

14 août 2019

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On the weekly chart, we still higher lows... but we have 4 days to go. However the the daily chart doesn't look good. If we hold this level of 10600 then we have a chance to pass once again the 20 Daily EMA.

14 août 2019

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4 HRLY chart

14 août 2019

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If we extend the blue box on my chart above, its between 9950 to 10100. This area is a potential area to line up with. If aligns with my initial chart above.

15 août 2019

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There is a volatility in this area however it seems to be acting as support. RSI is well in the oversold area in the 4 HRLY. However would this translate as higher low at the MACRO level. Only time will tell.

15 août 2019

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Keeping a keen eye on what is developing

15 août 2019

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15 août 2019

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It seems we have a match... a reversal in the making.

15 août 2019

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16 août 2019

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16 août 2019

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After the dead cat bounce... we are now in bearish territory. I did cash in some of my % on the way up and expect a pullback as per previous comparison. I was mindful that it was 50/50 chance that it wasn't going to bounce as per chart above. Hence the moment I sniffed the break down, I exited, hence less profit.
My mindset is now BEARISH and I envision at the MACRO level we are heading towards the next main stop, CME 8500 to 8900 range where the 200 EMA is located.
Still plenty of opportunity to increase our portfolio its just that you need to look for main fib. levels\support etc for the bounce. Back to this posting, we are now within the fib.fan of 1/1 and 2/1 as the ceiling\resistance. Until this is broken, there is no looking at any uptrend. The next level to look at is the main fib. levels as support. I will place another posting now with a revamped vision as to what is going to happen. If you look back in my postings, there was this as well, I believe we are going to have something similar.

16 août 2019

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16 août 2019

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Looking back.... this was not far off (so far)