BTC Project 2019, Phase 02, Edition 04 -Wyckoff model, Breakout?
Mis à jour
In this exercise, I am going to apply the Wyckoff logic to this chart, hopefully also aligning the phases correctly to our BTC chart.
Why? Everyone, or more so, many people expect a correction of 30 to 40% based on passed events in 2017, but so far we only got about 12% so that makes me wonder, are we
going to have it in this period because it seems like 7500 is a strong support and we are experiencing what looks like another accumulation stage with an imminent breakout.
This is my gut feeling. Sure I can be wrong and I have no issue going against the grain even though many people think it should have further drops, soon.
So when I looked at the Wyckoff events, and align it our BTC chart, it seems we are aligned which also helps explain what I see occurring.
However in such exercises, its hard to distinguish what is and what you want it to be or think it is. Only experience helps here.
With the Wyckoff phase B, a squeeze happens and forms a pattern (after we reached UT) which seems to explain what is taking place now.
Note: Confirmation on getting this right will only occur after the event of Phase E have completed.
Phase C, is when we get UTAD, upthrust after distribution (all time high), which is to shakeout the accumulation. It occurs in the latter stages and tests the new demand after a breakout.
My thoughts, it will test the 9100, then 9400 to 9800 range, even the 10k.
Observations:
1) 7500 range tested many times as a support and 8000 to 8100 as the main resistance range;
Volume dropping in this somewhat of a wedge formation, indicating a tightening and an a breakout as an outcome;
2) we are getting higher lows, and we had a strong green candle on the 10th this month, giving us a clue of the bullish nature of this squeeze;
3) as per the 1 Hrly chart, we have an upward wedge forming;
4) On the 4 hrly RSI, we have upwards momentum and a support line as per chart;
5) 4 hrly 20 EMA acting as support now;
6) daily shows a divergence and potentially supports the last effort for the new high;
7) NVT also indicates are close to dropping hard or bouncing up for further highs, hence this is a critical stage to make the right decision;
charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/
Conclusion:
The current status does not give away many clues as to the direction of the breakout, but a break is coming.
Trying to be objective, we have 50% either way but if you add some of the little clues, I'm leaning towards bullish at this point, which complements the Wyckoff model.
I feel 9100 to 9400 is the imminent target. That is a 1K move upwards.
After that, I go back to looking for a correction and chances are we will replay this analysis again.
Let me know if you like this or appreciate it, with a like.
Cheers,
Daily Chart:
4 Hrly Chart:
1 Hrly Chart:
Why? Everyone, or more so, many people expect a correction of 30 to 40% based on passed events in 2017, but so far we only got about 12% so that makes me wonder, are we
going to have it in this period because it seems like 7500 is a strong support and we are experiencing what looks like another accumulation stage with an imminent breakout.
This is my gut feeling. Sure I can be wrong and I have no issue going against the grain even though many people think it should have further drops, soon.
So when I looked at the Wyckoff events, and align it our BTC chart, it seems we are aligned which also helps explain what I see occurring.
However in such exercises, its hard to distinguish what is and what you want it to be or think it is. Only experience helps here.
With the Wyckoff phase B, a squeeze happens and forms a pattern (after we reached UT) which seems to explain what is taking place now.
Note: Confirmation on getting this right will only occur after the event of Phase E have completed.
Phase C, is when we get UTAD, upthrust after distribution (all time high), which is to shakeout the accumulation. It occurs in the latter stages and tests the new demand after a breakout.
My thoughts, it will test the 9100, then 9400 to 9800 range, even the 10k.
Observations:
1) 7500 range tested many times as a support and 8000 to 8100 as the main resistance range;
Volume dropping in this somewhat of a wedge formation, indicating a tightening and an a breakout as an outcome;
2) we are getting higher lows, and we had a strong green candle on the 10th this month, giving us a clue of the bullish nature of this squeeze;
3) as per the 1 Hrly chart, we have an upward wedge forming;
4) On the 4 hrly RSI, we have upwards momentum and a support line as per chart;
5) 4 hrly 20 EMA acting as support now;
6) daily shows a divergence and potentially supports the last effort for the new high;
7) NVT also indicates are close to dropping hard or bouncing up for further highs, hence this is a critical stage to make the right decision;
charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/
Conclusion:
The current status does not give away many clues as to the direction of the breakout, but a break is coming.
Trying to be objective, we have 50% either way but if you add some of the little clues, I'm leaning towards bullish at this point, which complements the Wyckoff model.
I feel 9100 to 9400 is the imminent target. That is a 1K move upwards.
After that, I go back to looking for a correction and chances are we will replay this analysis again.
Let me know if you like this or appreciate it, with a like.
Cheers,
Daily Chart:
4 Hrly Chart:
1 Hrly Chart:
Transaction en cours
Bullish moment still coming to play, with the 8000 acting as resistance. Soon it will break through and go towards the next resistance of 8150. Question is what type of volume or follow through will it have when it hits it. We are hoping it will break through with little resistance is what I'm expecting, based on the buildup and the ALTs.Transaction en cours
Just keep track of the developments. It still hasn't broken the wedge but its in the upper limits. If its continues here to as a means of accumulation, then the upward break looks hopeful. The bulls or FOMO people as they say, have to hold the support.Note
Note
Next resistance to overcome...buildup in progresstradingview.com/u/ssari/
Transaction en cours
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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