BTC.Prj.2019.P03E05.V4.Still Bearish Trend?
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Observation:
As per previous post, the hidden bearish divergence is most likely holding back the current follow through.
Hence the main resistance of 10600 (initially) is looking difficult to pass.
Beyond this, I anticipate a lot of volatility between 9K and 10500 (blue triangle region)
I have factored in a number of key milestones into this post and only if and when these are ticked off, we can say we are returning to a bullish trend.
a) DAILY 21 EMA is still resistance and has not been passed (we require a open and close candle above this in the 4 hrly to be give a temporary bullish category)
b) 11500 is a key level to be reached before we can consider anything above it.
c) The red region between 10650 and 11K has proven to be a strong support and now a strong resistance that needs to be passed (as the first point)
d) We still having lower lows and high lows at the Macro level.
e) Ichimoku cloud also confirms on the daily the high resistance layer that needs to pass (on the 4 Hrly chart)
f) Many suspect based on parabolic trends, that this is a blow off and as such we need to go back to when this started.
I put this as observation as its predominately true for such parabolic moves (below 6K)
g) Using the fib circle, one can see two key rings that act as support and resistance, including now
h) Using the fib fan, we can see the phases of the support levels.
i) Many have also suggested based on the 2 highs and 2 lows, we are in a downward channel.
Conclusion:
With all these points, there is more evidence that we are still in the down trend and are yet waiting on key levels to be reached before we can call it bullish again.
Suggestion:
Still go short and have tight stop limits.
Trade with the down trend, don't assume any reversal until b) is confirmed.
Daily chart: 10 and 21 EMA acting resistance
4 HRLY chart: Ichimoku cloud resistance layer, plus, RSI levels indicate bearish divergence and ADX\DI showing weakening in the momentum and strength, downward direction.
As per previous post, the hidden bearish divergence is most likely holding back the current follow through.
Hence the main resistance of 10600 (initially) is looking difficult to pass.
Beyond this, I anticipate a lot of volatility between 9K and 10500 (blue triangle region)
I have factored in a number of key milestones into this post and only if and when these are ticked off, we can say we are returning to a bullish trend.
a) DAILY 21 EMA is still resistance and has not been passed (we require a open and close candle above this in the 4 hrly to be give a temporary bullish category)
b) 11500 is a key level to be reached before we can consider anything above it.
c) The red region between 10650 and 11K has proven to be a strong support and now a strong resistance that needs to be passed (as the first point)
d) We still having lower lows and high lows at the Macro level.
e) Ichimoku cloud also confirms on the daily the high resistance layer that needs to pass (on the 4 Hrly chart)
f) Many suspect based on parabolic trends, that this is a blow off and as such we need to go back to when this started.
I put this as observation as its predominately true for such parabolic moves (below 6K)
g) Using the fib circle, one can see two key rings that act as support and resistance, including now
h) Using the fib fan, we can see the phases of the support levels.
i) Many have also suggested based on the 2 highs and 2 lows, we are in a downward channel.
Conclusion:
With all these points, there is more evidence that we are still in the down trend and are yet waiting on key levels to be reached before we can call it bullish again.
Suggestion:
Still go short and have tight stop limits.
Trade with the down trend, don't assume any reversal until b) is confirmed.
Daily chart: 10 and 21 EMA acting resistance
4 HRLY chart: Ichimoku cloud resistance layer, plus, RSI levels indicate bearish divergence and ADX\DI showing weakening in the momentum and strength, downward direction.
Note
While I was looking for a short bounce, either at the 10K range or higher, it occured to me that there is a very strong reversal pattern in play. One must be ready to jump on this, ride it and do the right moves. This potential can definitely hit the target I mentioned in the previous post and beyond this one.Note
Note
Note
Updated \ tweaked chartNote
This bearish divergence is preventing price rise as well as the major fib ring and 55 EMA on the 4 HRLY. Still looking for that divergence correction in the 4 hrly to get the inverse H&S.Note
The big divergence moves\chartNote
time to sell...bearish div.Note
oops. bearish div. corrected
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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