Using 2019 data, I compared it to our current chart and noticed many strikingly similar patterns. I will be using the 2019 data to explain what I anticipate will happen in 2023. There are several resemblances in patterns that have already unfolded, and I will do my best to explain what I believe might occur.
First things first, let's examine 2019. The market came off the lows and experienced three significant upward waves, which closely mirrors our recent movement from a low of 15k all the way up to 30k. In 2019, we also witnessed the formation of a symmetrical triangle at the peak of the third wave, which is precisely what is unfolding today.
As evident from the 2019 data, the triangle eventually broke and resulted in a sharp decline towards the starting point of wave 3. If we apply today's prices, this would translate to a drop to approximately 20k. Consequently, the highly anticipated mark of 25.3k that many people are waiting for will be invalidated if you plan to purchase at that level.
Following the decline, there might be a brief price increase, possibly reaching the 23-24k range, only to be followed by another drop, potentially dipping below 20k within a few days. At this point, many will assume that this is the ultimate bottom and will enter the market, leading to a long wick upwards. However, this upward momentum will be short-lived, and the price will decline for a few weeks, establishing new lows around 17-18k. Subsequently, for the remainder of the year, we can expect a modest rally, possibly concluding around the 30k mark.
The beginning of 2024 is projected to be challenging, with a drop to the all-time low of 15k occurring just before the halving commences. On the day of the halving, a significant sell-off is expected, followed by a subsequent rally that will propel the price beyond 30k.
I hope you find this analysis insightful. Thank you!