Africa the new Chinese Copper Colony
This day has seen the price differential between the COMEX and the London Metal Exchange (LME) seen as a support for the consolidation of the UK market. The copper market has been experiencing tensions due in part to the closure of one of the most important mines in Latin America located in Panama, coupled with the reduction of production forecasts from several suppliers. China's focus on lending, investment and trade with Africa as a whole has generated a beneficial exchange in which billions of dollars have been committed to construction projects led by President Xi's Silk Road initiative. Chinese investments in Africa increased by 114% according to Australia's Griffith University, where their focus is highly concentrated on extracting minerals for the energy transition and China's plans to lead and revive its own economy. Such trade also requires oil, agricultural and manufacturing products, as China's deficit has ballooned. Public-private infrastructure development (PPP) loan agreements appear to be China's channel for acquiring raw materials in exchange for finished goods.
Recently, the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, reported that investments from 2023 to 2025 have been increasing to $11 billion, of which $7.8 billion went into mining, such as the Khoemacau copper mine in Bostwana, which China's MMG Ltd acquired for $1.9 billion, as well as lithium and cobalt mines in countries such as Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The hunt for critical minerals has also extended to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the Chinese government is developing the Atlantic coast corridor called the Lobito Corridor, to send metals from Zambia to Congo, the development of the Nairboi Expressway, the development of automobile tracks in Kenya or the railroad line that was cancelled in Uganda. What can be detected in the Chinese economic model is the generation of a hyperdependence of “colony-metropolis” that was previously occurring with European countries such as France, or the United States in those countries, and this control of monetary power is being transferred to China.
Looking at the July copper futures chart, there has been a gradual escalation in price since February, where major African contracts with China through the BRICs began to be backed by Gold and intensified, and this forced the repatriation of millions of dollars sitting in fort nox bunkers and respective domestic warehouses in the US.
It would not be unusual to see a price contraction to previous areas of 383 because the demand for copper has been able to match pure speculation prices of 2022, where there is no real demand to cover that supply, because none of the technology consuming countries are at their best. This, added to the inflation problem, may be affecting and causing copper to remain bullish, just like the rest of the metals. But not because of real market demand, but because of inflation. Its high of 519.75 could be pierced again because of inflation, but as soon as inflation is corrected if market demand remains as poor, copper will fall in price to plummeting lows. In any case, a bullish continuation is very feasible in the short term.
Ion Jauregui - AT analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Recently, the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, reported that investments from 2023 to 2025 have been increasing to $11 billion, of which $7.8 billion went into mining, such as the Khoemacau copper mine in Bostwana, which China's MMG Ltd acquired for $1.9 billion, as well as lithium and cobalt mines in countries such as Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The hunt for critical minerals has also extended to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the Chinese government is developing the Atlantic coast corridor called the Lobito Corridor, to send metals from Zambia to Congo, the development of the Nairboi Expressway, the development of automobile tracks in Kenya or the railroad line that was cancelled in Uganda. What can be detected in the Chinese economic model is the generation of a hyperdependence of “colony-metropolis” that was previously occurring with European countries such as France, or the United States in those countries, and this control of monetary power is being transferred to China.
Looking at the July copper futures chart, there has been a gradual escalation in price since February, where major African contracts with China through the BRICs began to be backed by Gold and intensified, and this forced the repatriation of millions of dollars sitting in fort nox bunkers and respective domestic warehouses in the US.
It would not be unusual to see a price contraction to previous areas of 383 because the demand for copper has been able to match pure speculation prices of 2022, where there is no real demand to cover that supply, because none of the technology consuming countries are at their best. This, added to the inflation problem, may be affecting and causing copper to remain bullish, just like the rest of the metals. But not because of real market demand, but because of inflation. Its high of 519.75 could be pierced again because of inflation, but as soon as inflation is corrected if market demand remains as poor, copper will fall in price to plummeting lows. In any case, a bullish continuation is very feasible in the short term.
Ion Jauregui - AT analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.