Short

DAX, is 17k the top?

Mis à jour

As you may noticed, after reaching the round 17k level, the DAX reacted more corrective than usual and fell back to the trend line. If you want to get in a short position, you can look for the trend line to be broken and retestet. This move could be interpreted as a 1, 2 setup for a decline back to the 16k area.

Transaction en cours

Breakout. If you want to risk, you can get in with a SL at the ATH.
If you want to trade conservative wait for the retest of the broken trendline.

Note

A rebound could happen around 16650, but do not expect it to test the top again.

Note

The pullback started perfectly near the mentioned level. Levels to go short:
16760 and 16800

Transaction en cours

16760 triggered.

Transaction en cours

16800 triggered.

Note

Position from 16800 already profitable. Please decide by your own, when to take profits. Always remember you are trading against the main trend, but the correctional potential is there. There are two options to oberserve:

1. Possible decline from this point if the weekly candle closes bearish and the low from yesterday gets broken.
2. Possible new range for consodilation below 17k. Doesn't mean it has to be bullish then, but you have to think about a sideways movement.

Note

Weekly candle close is bearish, let's hope there will be a sell of next week.

Note

This idea is playing out very well so far. Hopefully you got a good shorting position and already made the first profits :)

Please keep in mind, that the US Indices are still very strong and the DAX could be influenced by them.

Note

The next key level is 16630. If we see a breakdown of this structure low a huge sell of should begin. But first a pullback is likely.

Note

If this is the bearish pattern I'm looking for, I would like to see a rejection from 16850 - 16900 zone.

Note

Just wanted to warn everyone, that the correction can be over at any time. If you got the mentioned entries consider to take profit or go break even.

So far this analysis already brought a nice profit :)

Note

This is looking great again, still holding some positions.

Note

Also the US indices are showing a huge sell of today, which is great for further shorting of the DAX.

Trade fermée manuellement

A potential pullback is forming on the 4H Chart. Better take some profits here.

Note

As I said the pullback was forming and could reach the top or any other structure below again. I still think the main movement will be corrective, but it was good to reduce positions to manage risk and secure profits. Waiting for the weekly candle to close, will be interesting for next weeks development.

Note

Don't know how to interpret the last days to be honest. It looks like a consolidation is forming within a wide range, will make it hard to trade. Considering the time the consolidation took a long breakout is possible at this point. But the chances for a deeper correction are also high. I would suggest to reduce risk, if you want to get in with a short trade now.

Note

There is a resistance confluence (trend line and horizontal resistance) between 16760 and 16800, if you want to get in a short trade.

Note

As you may noticed we had a strong rejection from the mentioned area. If you were able to trade this, well done. We are now in a clear range situation and a breakout will confirm the next move.

Lower Boundary: 16600
Upper Boundary: 17000

Note

Another great reaction from 16800.

Note

From a technical point of view we have the first signs of an upcoming bearish wave. A red weekly candle would make this scenario even more likely, because of the huge rejection from the mentioned levels. It's likely that the resistance levels will get tested again during tomorrows session and most of the participants will observe how the weekly candle will close.

With every single trading decision it is up to you to decide how and when to enter. In my opinion we are well positioned for a bearish move and the idea is still valid. Anyway if you took trades from the mentioned levels, you should have made money or at least not loose any money. Thank you all for the support.

Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte

There we go!
First support area at 16500 has been reached, we have to see if the correction will extend more. The next targets are 16400 and 16000

Note

Further decrease in price is still likely, but it's getting more risky and tomorrow is NFP data, which affects the DAX as well usually.
Todays candle closed bullish, so keep an eye on a potential pullback from here.

Note

The mentioned pullback started and this could be also the beginning of a new uptrend, so please be careful now.
We have a good invalidation point so observe, which is the completed wave B from the correction: 16959
By reaching this level I don't see a chance of further correction in the short term.

If you want to try short again you can use the resistance area from 16730 - 16825.

According to elliot wave analysis we ended a three move down at 16442, which could be wave 4 (Option 1) or wave A of wave 4 (Option 2).

Option 1: This would be bullish with minimum target at 17348
Option 2: This would be bearish with target area around 16200 or even lower

First we have to see if another C wave is forming.

Note

First bearish reaction in the mentioned zone, not sure, if it can break down again, but already a nice profit.

Note

Actually we are still in the bearish pattern, but the other indices could affect also DAX to rise again next week. However I'm still looking for selling rather than buying, but with very low risk now.

It will get way more interesting, if the DAX is making a new ATH somewhen in the frist quarter of the year. In this case it's likely that we topped a wave 5 of a wave 5, which would bring us a high correction potential. If that happens I'll make a new idea post anyway.

Note

All indices are facing selling pressure today again. The way how they move down, pointing to be a correction, that can take a long time and move down with several pullbacks, because of the bullish sentiment. Anyway, I still think we are better positioned on the short side so far and already made a great profit.

Note

If the weekly candle close will be below 16500, further downside is likely to 16300 and maybe 16000. This is my final TP zone, where I expect buyers to come in again.

Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte

We are close to the bottom of the current support zone, so I took profits again. If we get a pullback to 16500 we could get into the last wave of the correction. From this moment it will get risky, because the DAX could turn bullish at any time now. Please risk small and set a SL.

Note

As I explained, the risk is getting higher for a bullish move here and we have a bullish engulfing candle to deal with now. This is no confirmation for a bullish confirmation so far, but we have a very strong move in US indices, US100 build an ATH today, so maybe the correctional phase is already over. Let's see how the weekly candle will close tomorrow.

Note

As I mentioned in the last comment the risk of short selling was too high and I observed the price development instead of taking any trades. Currently we have new ATHs in the US indices and the DAX is closing a very strong weekly candle just under the ATH it's not suggested at all to short any more. If the DAX is following my main plan, we could get a fifth wave on top ending around 17600. This will be a great spot to sell again. If this happens I'll create a new idea for sure.

I'm closing this one with a stunning profit and hope you made some out of it.

Kyrean

Publications connexes

DAX, this has to drop somewhen

par Kyrean

Clause de non-responsabilité

Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.