Short

DJIA: After 40 % bull run poised for consolidation

Mis à jour

Starting on February 21th 2016 at 15.500 the DJIA is showing an widely unexpected up move of allmost 40 (!)%, missed by most traders even institutional or small privat investors.

Today the VIX dropped to record lows not seen since 1993. U.S. Sentiment Indicators now rising to "extreme greed" levels also indicating a short term or medium term end of this impressive upmove.

Missing now is a reversal pattern to confirm the end of any up side momentum. The next days or weeks should show this missing reversal pattern to start a short or medium term consolidation. Any downsidemomentum likely to be a countertrend and not the final end of this bullmarket.

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DJIA: Impressive bull run since february 2016

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SENTIMENT VIX:

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW, VIX:
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Wall Street's 'fear index', the VIX, sinks to lowest since 1993
m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-street&

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Volatility plunge sends VIX index to 23-year low
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/volatility-plunge-sends-vix-index-to-23-year-low-509703

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Todays market action: DJIA heading into rising wedge with record low VIX.

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: HISTORIC VIX NUMBERS UNDER
"10" EXTREMELY RARE
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QUOTE:
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Here’s what happened the last time the VIX traded this low
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The CBOE Volatility Index dropped to its lowest level since December 1993 on Tuesday, and history shows it could mark a tremendous buying opportunity for stocks.

According to Brian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments, the so-called fear index has only closed below the 10 level on 24 trading days in history, with 15 of those days occurring in the last three months. Note, a close below 10 on Tuesday would mark the 25th time in history and 16th occurrence in the last three months.

But while Wall Street weighs whether the low volatility reading could signal a top for the markets, Stutland pointed out that it could actually foreshadow the next leg up in the rally.

"When we see [the VIX] this low, we look at the stock market and it has done fairly well," he explained Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "When we see the VIX trades below 10, usually in the last couple of times [the market has moved about 2 percent higher one month later]."

He also noted that the last time the VIX saw a prolonged period below 10, in November 2006, the S&P 500 rallied 10 percent six months later, and 5 percent one year later.

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DJIA: Rising Wedge still likely

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NASDAQ COMP: IMPRESSIVE SELL SIGNAL LIKELY

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SPX: SHORT TERM SELL SIGNAL

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DJIA - SHORT/ MEDIUM TERM SELL SIGNAL LIKELY

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DJIA, TECHNICAL VIEW:
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Chart Snapshot
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ALL TIME HIGH BY OPENING GAP. If ever this might be am exhaustion gap than the DJIA could peak today.

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DJIA, July 31 2017: Call for Market Top

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Mueller impanels Washington grand jury in Russia probe: Wall Street Journal
investing.com/news/politics-news/mueller-impanels-washington-grand-jury-in-russia-probe-wall-street-journal-514371

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One year into the FBI's Russia investigation, Mueller is on the Trump money trail
edition.cnn.com/2017/08/03/politics/mueller-investigation-russia-trump-one-year-financial-ties/index.html

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Trump's approval rating plunges to new low, poll shows
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Trump's approval rating is down 7 percentage points from the 40 percent rating he received in a similar survey in late June.
It also stated that American voters say 54 to 26 percent that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president.
cnbc.com/2017/08/03/trumps-approval-rating-plunges-to-new-low-poll-shows.html?recirc=taboolainternal

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MARKET VIEW: WEAK CHINA DATA CREW DOWN STOCKMARKETS

World stocks shrug off slowing China trade growth to hit record
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-stocks-subdued-as-china-trade-disappoints-515628

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VIX:

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VIX: Impressive spike to the upside supporting further downside momentum

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DERIVATIVES-VIX shorts hit new record
reuters.com/article/derivatives-vix-shorts-hit-new-record-idUSL5N1KU4TR

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DJIA: Intraday reversal likely. Trader should wacht downsidemomentum very closely to get guidance about possible downside potential.

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DJIA: Lower highs, lower lows, gravestone doji. Shortterm selloff likely to come now.

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GEOPOLITICS, TRUMP APPROVAL RATES:
Trump setting records for low presidential approval

Plunging into undesirably uncharted territory, Trump is setting records with his dismally low approval ratings

At 34 percent, his current approval rating is worse than former President Barack Obama's ever was

QUOTE: "Trump has defied the trends before. But if history is a guide, his numbers don't bode well. Low approval ratings hamper a president's ability to push an agenda through Congress and make it more likely the president's party will lose seats in Congress in the midterm elections."
Source: cnbc.com/2017/08/26/trump-setting-records-for-low-presidential-approval.html

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Quote: "Money flow: Investors pull billions from US stocks in longest outflow streak since 2004"
Source: cnbc.com/2017/08/25/investors-pull-billions-from-us-stocks-in-longest-streak-since-2004.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Remark: Traders should remind the "lock up periode" for stock repurchase programs to start in 3-4 weeks from now. Stock buy backs may prevent right now US stockmarkets from more selling pressure. This is going to change within days by end of september if investors might continue to pull money out of US stockmarkets.

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Quote: "The report also pointed out the turn away from U.S. stocks coincided with the late June surge in the euro against the U.S. dollar to its strongest in nearly a year, after comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested higher inflation and tighter monetary policy soon in the euro zone.

The euro subsequently climbed to its highest in more than two years in early August, and traded slightly below those levels near $1.186 Friday. Draghi is scheduled to speak later Friday afternoon at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming."
Source: Link above

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GEOPOLITICS: Trump vs. Government shutdown vs. "The Wall" vs. Mexico
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Trump Repeats Making Mexico Pay for Wall as He Seeks Funding
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-27/trump-recommits-to-make-mexico-pay-for-wall-as-he-seeks-funding
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Remark: Not really difficult to understand that Trump is trying to deliver his widely promised "wall" - but no one is willing to pay for it. For US stockmarkets and the USD this more or less "funny issue" now is turning serious and negative.

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GEOPOLITICS: Trumps vs. "the Wall" vs. "China":

Trump reportedly demands China action: 'I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs'
cnbc.com/2017/08/27/trump-reportedly-demands-china-action-i-want-tariffs-and-i-want-someone-to-bring-me-some-tariffs.html

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Dow futures open more than 100 points lower after North Korea fires missile over Japan

North Korea fired a missile over Japan, according to local media.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the ballistic missile passed over the Tohoku region at the northern end of Japan.
Local government urged people living in the area to take refuge in solid buildings or underground shelters, NHK reported.
cnbc.com/2017/08/28/japanese-government-warns-north-korea-missile-headed-toward-northern-japan-report-says.html

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