US 30 Consolidating: Expect Shave after the Haircut
Fibo 0.62 retrace from Mar/Apr lows to the Sep high intersects lower support trendline at 24750. Lower is possible, but... just sayin'.
See Chart: res ipse loquitur.
The downdraft should stop and pivot somewhere between the two support lines in chart. Should. Might.
Expect a 0.50 retrace up from the pivot before next move.
Expect another flashcrash to test the lower support sometime this week. Panic is wearing off now, although the indexes declined today VIX was also lower most of day. This is a pattern we see in consolidation- volatility, still high, but settling off peak highs while equities continue to decline and much whipsaw price action is evident.
A consolidative pattern should emerge going into week of the 22nd to complete the Zig-Zag correction that began in January, with breakout to upside anticipating the Nov election. In spite of rate hikes and t-bill yields, earnings should propel equities to higher levels by year-end, and the looming recession is not yet in sight over the horizon.
A fifth Elliott Wave going into the new year might carry prices to still higher levels before the real break- probably later in 2019.
A bear market will likely arrive next year.
The P/C ratio and bear:bull bias are so high now the contrarian view suggests we are near a bottom.
So many pundits calling for the Great Crash of 2018 it probably won't happen.
Great Crashes always happen when no one expects it, and everyone is wildly bullish!
Transportation index is already forming its bottom, it is a leading indicator for the industrials. DJT up 65 Monday, with Dow off 90.
From Monday close there might be another 500 pt drop left in the bear wave. Risk:reward for selling short now is more risk than reward.
Puts are so expensive you would need a massive selloff to realize significant gains, and the darn things run down so fast, even when you're right, you're wrong.
I bought a few just in case anyway!
This is purely an educational post for your amusement and is not intended as any kind of investing advice. That said, I am accumulating longs as covered call writes.
Good luck!
See Chart: res ipse loquitur.
The downdraft should stop and pivot somewhere between the two support lines in chart. Should. Might.
Expect a 0.50 retrace up from the pivot before next move.
Expect another flashcrash to test the lower support sometime this week. Panic is wearing off now, although the indexes declined today VIX was also lower most of day. This is a pattern we see in consolidation- volatility, still high, but settling off peak highs while equities continue to decline and much whipsaw price action is evident.
A consolidative pattern should emerge going into week of the 22nd to complete the Zig-Zag correction that began in January, with breakout to upside anticipating the Nov election. In spite of rate hikes and t-bill yields, earnings should propel equities to higher levels by year-end, and the looming recession is not yet in sight over the horizon.
A fifth Elliott Wave going into the new year might carry prices to still higher levels before the real break- probably later in 2019.
A bear market will likely arrive next year.
The P/C ratio and bear:bull bias are so high now the contrarian view suggests we are near a bottom.
So many pundits calling for the Great Crash of 2018 it probably won't happen.
Great Crashes always happen when no one expects it, and everyone is wildly bullish!
Transportation index is already forming its bottom, it is a leading indicator for the industrials. DJT up 65 Monday, with Dow off 90.
From Monday close there might be another 500 pt drop left in the bear wave. Risk:reward for selling short now is more risk than reward.
Puts are so expensive you would need a massive selloff to realize significant gains, and the darn things run down so fast, even when you're right, you're wrong.
I bought a few just in case anyway!
This is purely an educational post for your amusement and is not intended as any kind of investing advice. That said, I am accumulating longs as covered call writes.
Good luck!
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