Could we see 15% or 50% drop in DOW?

This is a weekly chart, and if you are to go by investor Jeremy Grantham's Fed Put - more like a doomsday call of 50%, you might want to pay attention to this.

I'm a big believer we of gap fills, seen it happen time and again, some times its quick, other times it take much longer. We have a gap to fill (marked in the blue zone).

Coincidentally, that coincides with the 200 day moving average (EMA), and that's about a 15% drop from where we are now. Seeing a big black candle within the week, should be of concern.

But even if you go by fib retracements, you can also see the 1.272 level coinciding with the blue gap fill zone as well.

The best thing is to follow the RUT and see where that's going to get an indication of how the market is really doing, after a long sideways consolidation since March 2021 - looks like we could be entering a distribution phase.