DOW - Bear Market Rally Thoughts
Bears have had not had so much fun and confidence since 2008 as the Inflation/recession combo and aggressive rate hikes keeps the bad news for stocks rolling in.
Relief rallies will come from oversold conditions but also understanding the narratives driving the selling will help spot the reversal stories, we had one yesterday from large drop in Oil and inflation expectations but the rally only lasted 1 day and quickly the bears have taken back control.
A more serious pivot would be 1-2 months of US CPI dropping and if Oil continues to fall this is likely but it will take a bit of time. US Yields if they drop back more could also turn the market but would have to get back under 3.0% and we in middle of hiking so that is likely further down the road.
Ukraine Peace talks, China Trade Tariff reduction all possible major stories that could prompt a large relief here.
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Relief rallies will come from oversold conditions but also understanding the narratives driving the selling will help spot the reversal stories, we had one yesterday from large drop in Oil and inflation expectations but the rally only lasted 1 day and quickly the bears have taken back control.
A more serious pivot would be 1-2 months of US CPI dropping and if Oil continues to fall this is likely but it will take a bit of time. US Yields if they drop back more could also turn the market but would have to get back under 3.0% and we in middle of hiking so that is likely further down the road.
Ukraine Peace talks, China Trade Tariff reduction all possible major stories that could prompt a large relief here.
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
“Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
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