Another 48h - DXY Unchanged Today, But Trending Slightly Bearish

2024/11/19
Another 48h - DXY Unchanged Today, But Trending Slightly Bearish
“20 of 35 last trading days were green bullish until the weekend!
but lower daily highs daily since thursday - tomorrow again?”


Before the important numbers from NVDA this evening, after the closing bell on Wall Street, the US stock markets are in a historic situation - in a negative sense: they are more or less more expensive than ever before, i.e. as measured by the Buffett indicator, currently at over + 2.0 is. In addition, there is also the Trump comeback - the exceeded expectations that he will never fulfill. Let's not kid ourselves - I will also accompany him verbally as best I can and also support him; let alone all the Americans who voted for him. But after the greatest success in political history in the USA, he first has to deliver - and that scares most people? Fear of what it will be like - me too. And if the stock market's optimistic positive bulls aren't enough to at least think again? Then remember the words of Fed Chairman Powell again. Since his words: no need for Fed to rush rate cuts given a strong economy, the stock market seems to have lost momentum - vice versa: the bears have temporarily taken over the terrain. It is therefore not surprising that the US stock markets continue to tend to give up on NVDA figures - which confirms what has just been described, at least today. But there is always hope: yesterday the NDX had a positive green bullish trading day for the first time after five negative bearish red trading days. The whole Trump euphoria has to face reality - in contrast to the US Democrats. That's why Trump was elected. US budget deficit and/or trade balance more or less at historical highs, in addition to the one just described problems, challenges. So we'll just wait for the NVDA numbers and see what happens tomorrow.

“Misconceptions play a prominent role in my view of the world.”
George Soros

• Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
  
• Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
  
• Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
  

These are the 3 most important questions regarding price action in DXY. And which we should keep in mind - and let it be answered daily in the form of the price action, to learn may be day by day (not) something new.


107.064 : 2024/11/14 - cC) New Annual High Of This Year 2024
106.673 : 2024/11/15 - last price action
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - b) Higher High After 1st False Breakout
104.570 : 2024/10/23 - a) 1st High, False Breakout Out Of Formation
104.187 : 2024/11/07 - bB) Higher Low After 1st False Breakout
103.373 : 2024/11/05 - aA) 1st Low, After False Breakout Out Of Formation
While the DXY reached new annual highs last week, the breakout from the W trend reversal formation is also very interesting. I tried to describe it in 3 waves - to better understand the price action in retrospect. So that we can build on that, we have to sketch out a better future scenario. And I have now come to the conclusion that a relapse in price action below the annual highs in 2024 and/or even the annual high in 2023 is quite realistic to expect. Because of the 35 trading days in which the DXY went from the annual low in 2024 to the annual high in 2024, only 10 trading days were negatively bearish red. Which is why we should also pay attention to the upper price action levels; as they could act as both a support zone and a resistance zone. Importantly, at least in my opinion, based on the technical analysis of the last few weeks, the 2 downward trends from the 2nd quarter of this year 2024 are crucial. And/Or also the big w trend reversal formation, from the summer of 2024. The two downward trend lines are at more or less 106.1 points and/or also 105.2 points this week. A fall on, and/or even below, can be defined as a short-term countermovement, or a subordinate bearish trend, within an overarching upward trend. The decisive factor is the upper trend line of the w trend reversal formation, at 104.447 points. Any price action above this confirms the fundamentally positive bullish upward trend of the DXY .

107.064 : 2024/11/14 - Last New Annual High Of This Year 2024
107.015 : 2024/11/14 - Thursday High After Annual High 2024
106.903 : 2024/11/15 - Fridays High After Annual High 2024
106.813 : 2024/11/18 - Yesterday's High After Annual High 2024
106.532 : 2024/11/19 - Todays High After Annual High 2024
Today I drew 2 new trend lines - two classic bullish ones that are supposed to more or less measure the upward trend. The lows are always connected to each other - and after the break of the uptrend, the last low is connected to the low of the downward breakout. So what, maybe you`re thinking right now? We have a broken upward trend over the last 2 calendar weeks - precisely from the w trend reversal formation. And since the end of last week, this week, there has been a downward trend. Which is also proven by the SMA trend following indicator, which is set to 1 day & 5 days. And tends to change to blue from yellow. Anyway, let us note also that we have always had a lower daily high since Thursday, Friday, Monday - including today. And that's why - one way or another - we are facing a short-term, small breakout from the more or less 106.5 and/or 106.00 price action zone for the rest of the week. Why? For the reasons just described! How far? We'll see that tomorrow!


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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