Another 48h - Bears Opens Week With A Bearish GAP In DXY

2024/11/25
Another 48h - Bears Opens Week With A Bearish GAP In DXY
“the battle between the annual highs of 2023 & 2024 has begun!
who will prevail in this battle? the bears? or the bulls? and why?”


Here we go again! Trump isn't even officially in the White House yet - and the rumor mill is already churning like there's no tomorrow! Some of them, including me, can hardly wait until it starts. While the others are trying to uncover stories, narratives and mistakes (which you can ignore in silence if you mean well for him) in order to be able to accuse him again. So that they don't have to face their own fallibility, the last 4 years, the last 8 years, in public, in front of the population, in front of their voters. And they even voted Trump back in the white house! Although I feel connected to Trump, I do not join the chorus of all his enthusiasts, let alone critics, as if the USA, let alone the world, revolves around him. A mass media phenomenon, if you ask me - that he knew how to cleverly exploit to his advantage by making use of the new social media. And behaved authentically competently on social media, as well as in everyday life, with people - and especially at his rallies! Will there actually be another Trump rally in 2025? I don't know!

However, I know that the appointment of Scott Bessent fits Trump's ideal after JPM CEO Jamie Dimon publicly declined. The founder of the hedge fund Key Square Group has already attracted attention as a debt critic in the past. Trump's man for public finances will reshuffle the cards. The former hedge fund manager stands for an economic policy that he describes with three arrows: "I would rate him (Donald Trump, editor's note) as going into the election campaign with three arrows", Bessent said at a conference in June 2024:“That would be three percent real economic growth, and how can you achieve that? Through deregulation, increased energy production in the US, curbing inflation and encouraging investment so that the private sector can replace bloated government spending.” WallStreet was more or less at its all-time high on Monday, November 25, 2024 - which proves that the majority received this personnel favorably. This is not surprising, because Scott Bessent is considered a child of the market who has made a name for himself on Wall Street. The 62-year-old is the founder of the hedge fund Key Square Group, was previously Chief Investment Officer of George Soros' Soros Fund Management and is considered an expert in global macro investments. And will be the next US Treasury Secretary after all the bad verbal blood that has been going on between US Republicans and/or even George Soros, who has been in the US election campaign as a washed-up US Democrat for 20 years? Right - respect & salute! As written, from my side it can start tomorrow: Trump Back in Office 2025!

• Will We Fall Back In The W Trend Reversal Formation?
  
• Will We Defeat The Old Annual High Of 2024?
  
• Are We Heading To Annual Highs Of 2023?
  

These were the 3 most important questions regarding price action in DXY - and which could be answered with no, yes, yes, in the last week. Because in the first two trading days the price action had more or less fallen back to the level of the previous annual high of 2024 by the middle of the week, after the price action rose up, during the last week before. Since Wednesday, the DXY rose above the annual high of 2023 for the first time into the weekend - at least on Friday.

“Values are closely associated with the concept of self - a reflexive concept if ever there was one. What we think has a much greater bearing on what we are than on the world around us. What we are cannot possibly correspond to what we think we are, but there is a two-way interplay between the two concepts. As we make our way in the world our sense of self evolves. The relationship between what we think we are and what we are in reality is the key to happiness - in other words, it provides the subjective meaning of life.”
George Soros

• Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
  

The price action between 107.348 points (Annual Year High 2023 from 2023/10/03) and/or 106.517 points (1st Annual Year High 2024 from 2024/04/16) are groundbreaking. Pathbreaking for this week, after the DXY closed with 107.490 points last weekend. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 is continuing. While a price action below this should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .


108.071 : 2024/11/22 - Friday High, Last Week
107.156 : 2024/11/21 - Thursday High, Last Week
107.064 : 2024/11/14 - Last New Annual High 2024
107.015 : 2024/11/14 - Thursday High, Last Week Before
106.918 : 2024/11/20 - Wednesdays High, Last Week
106.903 : 2024/11/15 - Fridays High, Last Week Before
106.631 : 2024/11/26 - last price action
106.813 : 2024/11/18 - Mondays High, Last Week
106.632 : 2024/11/19 - Tuesdays High, Last Week
After the downward trend from the second to last calendar week was broken upwards in the middle of last calendar week, it should not be surprising if the US bulls slow down a little this week. In other words, the DXY comes down to the levels above. However, we shouldn't ignore the FOMC Minutes on Tuesday and/or the PCE Price Index YoY on Wednesday, this week - during this thanksgiving week.


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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