Dollar Weekly Market Analysis 17-21 Dec

19 déc. 2018

For the first half of this trading week, the dollar has shown weakness as it reached a peak at 97.7.
Although the Fed is expected to raise rate later during the Fed Funds Rate release, the market is also expecting lesser rate hike later in 2019.
The dollar is well expected to drop further to key level 96.4, an important supply zone.
The trend of the dollar will be set by the tone of the FOMC meeting minutes where the market shall reaccess the number of rate hikes in 2019.

21 déc. 2018

Note

So, it actually took longer and after Fed Fund Rate for the dollar to finally reach the key level at 96.4.
And as expected, this is a level not easy to be broken and price is definitely seen supported too.
The dollar has been falling for 4 consecutive days if we were to count Wednesday's 'no change' as one of them.
Would that technically mean that the dollar is oversold?
Will the market find enough appetite at the current low for a significant rebound before the week ends?

22 déc. 2018

Note

The overall movement came out pretty much as expected.
The price fell to 96.4 into the supply zone and rebounded off strongly due to an oversold sentiment.
Although the recovery on Friday was strong enough to fully regain from Thursday's losses, I highly doubt that the dollar can maintain the bullish from last Friday into this coming week.
Rather, I expect that the dollar may continue to slide until 95.6 while the market is still figuring out how much more hikes are there in 2019.