US Dollar Index: Long Term Cyclical Forecast Possibility

1 juil. 2017

This is an update to my DXY analysis from August 2015. Nothing has really changed much from that analysis except a potential top in January of 2017.

Time cycles change all the time, so I have no interest in putting too much faith even in something as consistent as the US dollar time cycle. However, I am very interested in the 618 level at ~ 84, should the 93 - 95/96 level be compromised. The absolute most ideal trading pattern for me would be congestion within a wedge as drawn in the chart.

8 sept. 2017

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UPDATE:

The US dollar (DXY Index) is down -12.09% from its peak, and -4.6% since publishing this idea. However, the downward momentum will not last forever without some buying pressure. The consolidation forecast seems to be intact for now as I see some support coming up soon, but not enough to restart its bullish trend.

Watch out for the 90.60 level, which implies selling pressure at 1.2130 - 1.2140 on EURUSD.

5 oct. 2017

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As projected, a reversal is on the horizon from the 92/93 level. 97 level is the next stop.

3 mars 2018

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Possible reversal in USD. Either way, a pivotal level.

3 mars 2018

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31 mars 2018

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Some reversal is underway very soon in my opinion.

7 nov. 2018

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We are now at the top of my range as shown in the chart below.


If you want more updates on this trade I will be tweeting them. Find me there. Twitter handle is in profile

26 juil. 2020

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DXY closed at a low it hasn't seen since mid 2018 (94.34). If I *have to* guess, we are now at the mid-point of the US dollar weakness cycle.

6 mai 2022

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About 5 years later the USD is retesting the 2017 high. I thought it would take longer than this based on the cycles and structure, but here we are. Measured target of this breakout is around 118. 1618 fib extension is 113 which is also next major resistance. Would not surprise me to see 145 eventually but step by step..

27 sept. 2022

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DXY is now at the 161.8 fib extension which is a very big level to pay attention to.

The measured move is 119 which would be the next big resistance if price gets comfortably above 113.50 - 114. If price gets tight in the coming weeks around this level it probably signals the move isn't over. My guess is there a lot more left in the tank but we could see a pause here which can be good for risk assets short term (equities, crypto). Short term could be a week or a few days - difficult to gauge.

For now take each set-up on its own merit and best not to make any assumptions.