DXY-BTCUSD-GOLD-USOIL (Dollar,Bitcoin,Gold-Oil)

9 déc. 2020

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: 2006-2007 Housing crisis 1 year
-> Gold AHT ~650USD, May/06
-> USD down -15% (from 90)
-> Gold ~flat (after AHT May/06, ~650USD)
-> SPX rally (3-4 months, +30%)

: 2008 financial crisis
-> SPX ATH (Jul/08, 1500p)
-> Gold ATH ~1000USD (Mar/08)
-> SPX down -15% (from 1600p)

: 2008 Recession
-> USD down -15% , bottom to 70 DXY
-> Oil rally +75% (ATH Jul/08 140USD)
-> Gold 2nd peak (Jul/08, ~900USD)
-> Gold down -20%
-> SPX down -10%

: 2008 Bailouts & stimulus (LehmanBro), Sept 2008
-> SPX 1st crash -30% (to 800p)
-> USD up +30% (from 71 DXY),
-> USD down -10% Nov-Dec (to 80 DXY)
-> Gold crash (to ~725USD Oct/09)

: 2009 Buildup
-> USD volitile (vol. 15%)
-> SPX 2nd crash -20% (to 680p Mar/09, -50% in a year)
-> Gold bullish
-> Oil bullish
-> USD down (to 75, vol. 10%)

: 2018 FED thigthening policy
-> Gold down
-> USD uptrend
-> Oil downtrend (-30% to 50USD)
-> SPX drop -12% Dec/18
-> SPX bull

: 2020 Covid crash (Mar/20)
-> SPX 1st crash -30%
-> BTCUSD crash -40%

: Postcrash 3xQs
-> SPX rally ATH
-> BTCUSD rally ATH
-> Gold rally to 1900USD

Learned
- Gold trend as an indicator
-> when Gold reach the bottom SPX peaks ATH and then crash
-

Prediction (9.dec2020)
: insolvency crisis
-> SPX downtrend
-> SPX 2nd crash -20% (apr/Mar 2021?)