Another 48h - Bearish Tension In DXY Today, All Week

2025/01/16
Another 48h - Bearish Tension In DXY Today, All Week
“the last time dxy was over 110 in 2022 and/or 2002!
what does this play in historical context? today?”



After the significant price gains the day before, investors on the US stock exchanges took their foot off the gas somewhat this Thursday, January 16, 2025. Economic data largely fell short of expectations, which should support expectations of interest rate cuts. Retail sales rose less than expected. And yesterday inflation rose less than expected. Does it ring? What? No? Okay - as I've been trying to explain to you for days! All at the expense of US taxpayers and/or US consumers. Which is why Trump is publicly speculating with tariffs! Will he do that? And how? I don't know! That's why - no 4XSetUp and/or let's wait and see.

However, the leading index Dow Jones Industrial DJIA fell by -0.23% to 43,123 points a good two hours before the market closed. The Nasdaq 100 NDX , which had its best day since the first week of December the day before, fell -0.49% to 21,133 points. The market-wide S&P 500 SP500 fell by -0.22% to 5,937 points. High price gains in luxury stocks drove the European stock exchanges on Thursday. The Eurozone leading index EuroStoxx 50 STOXX50 rose to its highest level since the beginning of April 2024 and closed with an increase of +1.48% to 5,106.93 points. Outside the euro area, the Swiss leading index SMI SMI rose by +1.36% to 11,942.00 points. The British FTSE 100 UKX rose by +1.09% to 8,391.90 points. The good mood from yesterday on WallStreet, which has now already disappeared, has given our leading German index, the DAX DAX , the next record. Positively received business figures from some companies helped the leading index build on its record rally from the previous day. After rising to 20,675 points at its peak, 20,655.39 points ultimately meant an increase of +0.39%. Nevertheless, I still dare to formulate a long LVMH 4XSetUp again, let alone a long DAX FUTURE 4XSetUp. Then it's better to go long DXY 4XSetUp - if you really, i mean really really, want to go long something new.

“We are accustomed to think of events as a sequence of facts: one set of facts follows another in a never-ending chain. When a situation has thinking participants, the chain does not lead directly from fact to fact. It links a fact to the participants' thinking and then connects the participants' thinking to the next set of facts.”
George Soros

The U.S. economy is the undisputed powerhouse of them all - when it comes to the stock markets (all around the world). Nothing shows it better than the $170 trillion net worth of the U.S. private sector, and the fact that the market capitalization of U.S. equities is greater than the sum of all other global equity markets' market cap worldwide. Scott Grannis impressively analyzed this at the beginning of December 2024 already. And published on his blog: "The U.S. is the King of Net Worth" And confirms my assumption that it is currently best to stay out of the US stock market. And in the conservative dynamic trading account only stay long in US01Y (fixed-interest security from 2024/03/04) and/or also UKOIL (how? as you see below)! Because the stock market is historically simply too expensive - which is also shown by the S&P 500 Mean Reversion Model. Because in this case, the broad US stock market is not just overbought. No - even Strongly Overvalued! "As of September 30, 2024, the S&P500 is currently trading 71% above its modern-era historical trend value, (about 2.0 standard deviations), indicating that the market is Strongly Overvalued."

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Monday New 2025 High
109.966 : 2025/01/02 - Last Annual High 2025
109.533 : 2025/01/02 - 1st Annual High 2025
109.206 : 2025/01/03 - 1st High After 1st High 2025
108.979 : 2024/12/16 - last price action
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.587 : 2024/12/20 - Last Low Of 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Re-Election Day High
Now things are getting exciting. Bearish tension in DXY today, all week. Because the price action is again tending to be bearish - traders and/or investors sent the price action today to its annual high in 2024 at times around 108.583 (annual high 2024 from 2024/12/31). That's why the first two highs of this year 2025 should be paid attention to - 109.533 points from 2025/01/02 and/or 109.206 from 2025/01/03. Because, if these are defended, it confirms the assumption that traders and/or investors want the DXY higher. But as i try to tell you this whole week - like a NFL football head coach: “Don`t get too offensive! We had 15 Bulls wins in the last 16 weeks. That's why slow down - another lost, even bearish week, is not a broken leg!” So one and/or two bearish weeks shouldn't be a problem? However, a price action below 109.533 points from 2025/01/02 and/or 109.206 from 2025/01/03 down to the annual high of 2024, from the last day of the year, on 12/31/2024 at 108.583 points, is not bad in the big picture. Even as today happened.Also 107.587 points, from the 2024/12/20 (last low of 2024) and/or even 107.348 points, from the 2023/10/03 (annual high 2023) too. Yes, it may even make more sense in the long run - in a historical context. that the DXY fall bearish down around this price action area. And then come back to new highs.


With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron



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