ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jun26-30)

26 juin 2023

SUMMARY
• ES posted a -1.58% loss last week after trading in a range of 81 points.
• ES found resistance at the Aug 16th high and pulled back last week.
• ES may need to consolidate before moving higher.
• ES only 10.20% off its ATH.
• Every sector closed red on the week. Strongest sectors were XLV, XLY & XLP. Weakest were
XLE, XLK & XLRE
• Slight rotation last week back into defensive sectors
• Stocks above their 200 SMAs dropped from 52% to 45% last week.
• Long term bias is now bullish but, market is currently digesting the recent gains.
• Still potential for ES to re-test the Dec 13th breakout point.
• VIX is in the TRIM zone (13.43). Remains exceptionally low.
• Buy the Dip has returned as the ATH is now in play.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Nothing notable
Tuesday CAN CPI, US Durable Goods, US CB Consumer confidence & US New Home Sales
Wednesday EIA Crude Inventories & Fed’s Powell speaks.
Thursday Us Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP
Friday US PCE , US personal Income & US Personal Consumption

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday CCL
Tuesday JEF, WBA
Wednesday GIS, MU
Thursday AYI, MKC, NKE, PYX
Friday STZ

BULLISH NOTES

ES above the HTF 618 Fib RT
Potential breakout above Aug 16th high.
EMA are stacked
Market breadth is improving
The 1.13 Fib X (4579) is now a price magnet
In a technical bull market. (Above LT 618 Fib RT)
Momentum ETFs are now in buy mode
Buy the dip is back in style
Potential positive reaction to PCE and Fed talk.

BEARISH NOTES

Potential hard reversal at the Aug 16th high
MEGA cap stocks are extended and near resistance zones
VIX is below 14 (sell zone)
Dec 13th breakout level has not been re-tested yet.
Potential negative reaction to PCE and Fed Head talk
Potential shock event (more bank failures or war)
Earnings momentum is over
Summer trading season is starting soon (lower volumes)

29 juin 2023

Note

Late first update as I have been away for a few days. ES_F found support at the HTF 618 Fib retracement and confluence with the daily 21 ema. Price is now attempting to stay above the 9 ems after a slew of data including GDP and PCE this morning. Bias will remain bullish above the 618 fib and bearish below intraday.

30 juin 2023

Note

ES_F held the 9 ema and made a straight move back up to the Aug 16th high. Now tradiing above it putting the Jun 16th high in play. Expect bullish price action above the Aug 16th high. A failure to hold that level would likey take it back to the 9 ema.