ES/SPY Weekend Levels (Oct10-14)

SPX closed up 1.44% after trading in a range of 213 point. The SPX dropped below the June 16th low to start the week then rallied 5.92% for two days, consolidated for two days and then dumped almost 2.76% on Friday after a stronger than expected employment report. Price will start the week again right back at the June 17th low. The market will now await the CPI data Thursday which will likely determine whether the market finally finds a base or continues lower. Below are a few points I am considering.

• Coming off immensely volatile week with 5% round trip
• Price reacted sharply off the 21 ema last week making it a key technical level going forward.
• CPI date out Thursday
• Price at key support June 17th low & recent Oct 3rd low
• 2020 peak in play to the down side on a break of the recent low
• Inflation and interest rates remain key market drivers
• Increasing risk of outlier event eg. Major Ukraine war escalation
• Bank earnings start at the end of the week
• Bullish period for the Nasdaq begins Oct 28th
• Explosive move in either direction possible

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Fed Head Brainard & Evens Speak,
Tuesday Fed Heads Hawker & Mester Speak + OPEC report
Wednesday US PPI, Fed heads Kashkari & Barr speack + FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Inventories & US CPI Data
Friday US Retail Sales & University of MIch. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday PEP
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday BLK, DAL, DPZ, FAST, PGR, TSM, WBA
Friday C, JPM, MS, USB, UNH WFC

BULLISH NOTES

Earnings season begins soon
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Market heavily short setups another bear rally
Potential double bottom from recent lows
Price closed the week positive and above June 17th low

BEARISH NOTES

Harsh reversal last week was very bearish
Potential negative reactions to CPI
Potential global shock event
Negative sentiment is very high = self fulfilling prophesy syndrome
2020 peak may be price magnet
Potential negative reaction to earning
Price back below 9/21/55 emas

Commentaire:

ES could not reclaim the June 17th low this morning. Test of the Oct low probable. The 1.13 Fib X level is key. A break of that level could lead to a much deeper drop.

Commentaire:

The ES is stronger than the NQ. Price has come into the Oct 3rd low but has not toughed the 1.13Fib X. As with the NQ the 1.13 Fib X is important. Above it expect a decent bounce below expect a deeper flush to 1.272 Fib X and potentially the 2020 Peak.

Commentaire:

Bounced off the lower trendline above the 1.13 Fib X yesterday. Probably pulled by the NQ that bounced perfectly off the 1.13. Price has come back down again as it continues to probe the Oct 3rd low zone. The market has had a few chances to dump but hasn't which is notable. It is stretch to the downside so a viscous bounce move up is possible. I'm keeping it simple. Bullish leaning above the 1.13 Fib X. Bearish below. Still have CPI tomorrow and Fed minutes later today to worry about.

Commentaire:

Huge reversal today. The fade back up didn't surprise me but the push past the congestion zone and through the previous day's close did. I had expected a retest or at least pull back first. It would be rare not to see some sort of move back down to probe the lows but we will see.