ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Jan 23-27)
Last week, the S&P 500 saw a decline of .75% within a trading range of 126 points. The market exhibited an early dip, but regained momentum on Friday after encountering support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The ES index closed below the 200 simple moving average (SMA), while the SPX index closed 4 points above the 200 SMA. Sectoral performance was mixed, with weakness in consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) offset by strength in communication services (XLC), technology (XLK), and consumer discretionary (XLY). The 10-year Treasury yield and the US dollar index (DXY) experienced an initial decline, but ended the week relatively unchanged. Market sentiment suggests a recessionary outlook and a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve. Earnings season continues, with notable releases from several companies including Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Chevron, 3M, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, and Tesla. The current price remains above key moving averages, including the 9/21/55 exponential moving averages (EMAs) and the December 22nd low, but is still constrained by the longer-term downward trend line. A break above the 200 SMA would be considered bullish, while a failure to do so would be bearish. The most significant economic data to be released this week is the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data on Friday.
• S&P closed down .75 % after trading in a point 126 point range
• Priced dropped early last week but recovered strongly on Friday after finding support at the 50% Fib RT
• The ES closed below just below the 200 SMA but the SPX close 4 points above the 200 SMA
• Weakness in the XLP, XLU sectors was offset by strength in XLC, XLK & XLY.
• The 10-year yield and DXY dipped early in the week but closed Friday relatively unchanged
• Market is pricing in a recession and an eventual Fed pivot.
• Potential rotational shift away from defensive sectors
• Earnings season continues with key reports from V, MA, BA, CVX, MMM, IBM, JNJ & TSLA
• Price remains above the 9/21/55 emas and the Dec 22nd low.
• The longer-term downward trend line is still in play and should be treated as resistance until its not
• A follow through move above the 200 SMA would be very bullish. A rejection would be very bearish
• A price move above the Dec 13th high would the 1st new high since August
• PCE data on Friday the most important econ data due out this week.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US PMI Flash
Wednesday BoC Rate decision, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Durable Goods, US GDP Advance & US New Home Sales
Friday US PCE, US Consumer Spending & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BKR, LOGI, FNB
Tuesday CNI, COF, DHI, GE, HAL, JNJ, LMT, MMM, TXN, UNP, VZ
Wednesday ABT, ADP, BA, CSX, EW, FCX, GD, HES, IBM, KMB, LEVI, NOW, STLD, STX, T, TSLA, URI, TER
Thursday AAL, ADM, BX, DB, INTC, LUV, MA, NOC, NUE, SHW, V, VLO, WY
Friday AXP, CL, CVX
BULLISH NOTES
Price above 9/21/55 ema
Price above Dec 22nd low and has made higher low
SPX closed 4 points above the 200 SMA
Earnings momentum
Potential positive reaction to earnings
Potential positive reaction to PCE data
Potential short covering rally if trendline is broken
Aggressive sectors outperformed defensive last week
BEARISH NOTES
Price remains in longer term down trend
Potential rejection at downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential negative reaction to PCE data
Recession fears
Possible shock event ( war escalation)
Rejection again at 200 sma may bring market down
• S&P closed down .75 % after trading in a point 126 point range
• Priced dropped early last week but recovered strongly on Friday after finding support at the 50% Fib RT
• The ES closed below just below the 200 SMA but the SPX close 4 points above the 200 SMA
• Weakness in the XLP, XLU sectors was offset by strength in XLC, XLK & XLY.
• The 10-year yield and DXY dipped early in the week but closed Friday relatively unchanged
• Market is pricing in a recession and an eventual Fed pivot.
• Potential rotational shift away from defensive sectors
• Earnings season continues with key reports from V, MA, BA, CVX, MMM, IBM, JNJ & TSLA
• Price remains above the 9/21/55 emas and the Dec 22nd low.
• The longer-term downward trend line is still in play and should be treated as resistance until its not
• A follow through move above the 200 SMA would be very bullish. A rejection would be very bearish
• A price move above the Dec 13th high would the 1st new high since August
• PCE data on Friday the most important econ data due out this week.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US PMI Flash
Wednesday BoC Rate decision, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Durable Goods, US GDP Advance & US New Home Sales
Friday US PCE, US Consumer Spending & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BKR, LOGI, FNB
Tuesday CNI, COF, DHI, GE, HAL, JNJ, LMT, MMM, TXN, UNP, VZ
Wednesday ABT, ADP, BA, CSX, EW, FCX, GD, HES, IBM, KMB, LEVI, NOW, STLD, STX, T, TSLA, URI, TER
Thursday AAL, ADM, BX, DB, INTC, LUV, MA, NOC, NUE, SHW, V, VLO, WY
Friday AXP, CL, CVX
BULLISH NOTES
Price above 9/21/55 ema
Price above Dec 22nd low and has made higher low
SPX closed 4 points above the 200 SMA
Earnings momentum
Potential positive reaction to earnings
Potential positive reaction to PCE data
Potential short covering rally if trendline is broken
Aggressive sectors outperformed defensive last week
BEARISH NOTES
Price remains in longer term down trend
Potential rejection at downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential negative reaction to PCE data
Recession fears
Possible shock event ( war escalation)
Rejection again at 200 sma may bring market down
Commentaire:
ES back at the 200 sma here. Important spot here. If price can get through I would expect a very bullish move. Rotation into riskier assets has me leaning long here.
Commentaire:
ES broke the 200 and the recent pivot high. Feels extended but short covering may continue to push it higher. Upside target remains the trendline then the Dec high.
Commentaire:
ES made the break above the 200 yesterday but is retesting it this morning. Price needs to stay above the 200 for bullish continuation.
Commentaire:
Broke down below the 200 yesterday but recovered. Very choppy PA going into PCE data tomorrow. Trendline above is still the upside target. 200 remains the bull/bear line for now.
Commentaire:
