ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Oct17-21)

Coming off highly volatile week. S&P closed down 1.53 % after trading in a range of 226 points. S&P has opened the week back above where it closed after the Thursday reversal reclaiming all of Friday’s pull back. Price is back above the Jun 17th low and the 9ema. The main consideration is whether the recent bullish price action is simply a retest of the June 17th breakdown area or the beginning of a new up trend. The June 17th low (3639) is key. If price can stay above that level and move through the 21 ema & downward trendline it would be very bullish. Price must break Fridays high for trend continuation. If price rejects in the resistance zone (red box) a move back down to the recent lows is possible.

• Extreme volatility continues
• Big 93 pt reversal off 1.272 Fib X on Thursday
• 60% retracement back down Friday now up 70 pts overnight
• Earnings season has begun
• Strong period for Tech has begun
• Lighter week for economic data
• Santa rally talk will start and focus on retail leading into Black Friday
• Ukraine war still shock potential
• Inflation & yields still a market drive
• Focus may shift to how business are handling high inflation
• Bank earnings + TSLA and NFLX may drive market sentiment

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday NY Fed Manufacturing
Tuesday US Industrial Production, Fed’s Bostic & Kashkari speak
Wednesday Euro CPI, Can CPI, US EIA Crude Inventories + Feds Kashkari & Evans speak
Thursday US Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Cook & Jefferson speak
Friday Fed’d William Speaks, Canadian Retail Sales

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday BAC, SCHW
Tuesday GS, HAS, JNJ, LMT, SI, IBKR, ISRG, NFLX
Wednesday ABT, ALLY, ASML, BKR, PG, TRV, AA, IBM, KMI, LRCX, LVS, TLSA
Thursday AAL, T, BX, DOW, FCX, NUE, PM DGX, TSCO, UNP
Friday BJRI, CSX, SNAP, THC, WHR

BULLISH NOTES

Coming off massive bullish reversal
Earnings season momentum
Potential positive news from Ukraine
Potential dovish comment from Fed Heads
Potential drop in USD
Oversold conditions may entice buyers

BEARISH NOTES

Price still below 9/21/55ema
Price below June 16th low
Massive reversal my just be retest of Jun 16th brk down
Below downward trend line
Potential War shock
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Potential rise in yields and USD

Commentaire:

Good move this morning but now camped at the 20 sma. breaking through the downward trend line and Friday's high is key for trend continuation.

Commentaire:

Big move up this morning was reject at the top of the resistance box. Price continues to resolve to the upside with price gapping above the close in the overnight session on NFLX earnings. The Oct 5th high is now in play. Continue to expect volatile swings in either direction.

Commentaire:

Big 70 pt reversal overnight. Price has fallen back into the resistance box below the 21 ema. The 9 ema should provide some support at the downward trendline. Below that the June 17th remains key. Above is better for the bulls. Below not so much.

Commentaire:

Price retested the downward trendline this morning and took off from the open but was rejected at the top of the red resistance zone. Price retraced 100% of the early move into the close. ES is stronger than the NQ and currently remains above the June 17th low. Bulls want to see the June low hold. Bears want to see price break down through it.

Commentaire:

June 17th low proved to be the trigger this morning as price launched off the level and closed at the top of the resistance box. Very strong close for both the ES and NQ this week.