SP500 fractal from 2000 make or break

6 avr. 2023

With volume decreasing, OBV ready for continuation it looks like this fractal could play out.
DXY bounce would fit in this narrative plus macro isn't to good and yield curve most inverted since 1980.
Scenarios from 72 and 2000 are in fact even worse 50% down in 2 years so this is an optimistic scenario.
Markets can be irrational very long time and DXY vs inflation is also pretty unpredictable.

All in all clear invalidation is close above 4208. But even if we continue up for now I don't see such growth sustainable.

5 mai 2023

Trade fermée manuellement

Uptrend broke as expected. But DXY did not bounce and SPX did not break down. Instead it is ranging. Did not hit SL and there are some bearish divergences. But I don't like those long wicks on weekly. Still might play out but I do no longer high confidence.

Scaling out.