Elliot Tripple Thrust pattern, AKA Gartley pattern
On February 20th I shorted the exact top of the market... Call it luck if you like, but I nailed it.. At that time there were extremely few Bears it was like in 2000 when most people were afraid to short for fear of "Infinite Losses", and Wall Street Analysts were saying, "We have entered a new paradigm where stock market corrections are no longer necessary". It was a $3000 trade in a $7000 portfolio. I have described the down move as
a Wave 1 down, impulsive, and complex, with a tiny wave 2 and a wave 3 down... In fact you have to go to a 4 hour chart to see wave 2. Then we got the wave 4 i have posted a lot about... It is very easy to see the
5 waves up in the the wave 4. A wave 4 is the hardest wave to read, because it is complex and corrective... All the Perma Bulls bought and we rode the heck out of that wave up... It very nearly broke wave 1 down
but stopped at exactly a 62 % correction.. So my forth wave count is intact... I spoke to another Elliotition who sees this whole pattern as an A-B-C pattern.. That's fine, Elliot Wave readers don't always see eye to eye,
but the B wave is so complex and corrective and fits the five waves down idea. Now that the Wave 4 is over we have gone from me being in the extreme minority to a Putt/Call ratio of 60 % are buying puts.. This actually makes me a little nervous because I am a contrarian by Nature assuming most are wrong most of the time... I intend to change my attitude after this correction.. To let go of my attachment to shorting... because let's face it the market goes up most of the time... Where will this down move end? Today I am looking at various levels between 2200 to 2400, but the markets can do whatever they want anytime they want... We could bounce somewhere down there or we could go into a Recession. I will post updates as time goes by.
The Tripple Thrust i predicted back on February 20th appears to be unfolding... What is a tripple thrust? its five sets of five waves up followed by a lower high, followed by lower lows. The last big 4th wave was the year 2018. The last set of five waves up after that ended on February... If you look at a chart from 2010 to 2020 and count carefully you can find five sets of five waves up.... If you look at a Monthly chart from 1990 to February you can see five waves up in a different timeframe... Elliot waves are fractal, waves inside of waves all the way down to 1 minute... However the longer the time frame the more reliable the pattern. It is almost impossible to question that from 1990 to now matches all the Elliot Rules, but watching a 1" chart intraday the patterns can unfold in so many ways I don't pay any attention to EWaves intraday at such small timeframes.
Many people think Elliot Wave counting is a broken, or at least highly suspect Trading tool... In fact Elliot Waves are not a trading tool at all. They were created to explain that markets move in mathematically perfect patterns. Most corrections are 50 % or 62 %, but sometimes you will see a 38% correction or a 21 % correction and so forth... Elliot predicted a Mega Bull market cycle that would get us to where we are today and he was right. If you want to learn to count waves read Prectners book.
amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-Principle-Market-Behavior/dp/1616040815/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=prechter+elliot+wave&qid=1589385548&sr=8-1
If you want a tool to count the waves for you and give you trade setups talk to my old buddy, slash Nemesis Steve over in England who sells the MTPredictor... He sells it here at TradingView under the indicators, and you can try it for 30 days for free or could at one time. Why do i say nemesis? Well Steve can be a little cranky at times.. I say this fully tongue in cheek.
a Wave 1 down, impulsive, and complex, with a tiny wave 2 and a wave 3 down... In fact you have to go to a 4 hour chart to see wave 2. Then we got the wave 4 i have posted a lot about... It is very easy to see the
5 waves up in the the wave 4. A wave 4 is the hardest wave to read, because it is complex and corrective... All the Perma Bulls bought and we rode the heck out of that wave up... It very nearly broke wave 1 down
but stopped at exactly a 62 % correction.. So my forth wave count is intact... I spoke to another Elliotition who sees this whole pattern as an A-B-C pattern.. That's fine, Elliot Wave readers don't always see eye to eye,
but the B wave is so complex and corrective and fits the five waves down idea. Now that the Wave 4 is over we have gone from me being in the extreme minority to a Putt/Call ratio of 60 % are buying puts.. This actually makes me a little nervous because I am a contrarian by Nature assuming most are wrong most of the time... I intend to change my attitude after this correction.. To let go of my attachment to shorting... because let's face it the market goes up most of the time... Where will this down move end? Today I am looking at various levels between 2200 to 2400, but the markets can do whatever they want anytime they want... We could bounce somewhere down there or we could go into a Recession. I will post updates as time goes by.
The Tripple Thrust i predicted back on February 20th appears to be unfolding... What is a tripple thrust? its five sets of five waves up followed by a lower high, followed by lower lows. The last big 4th wave was the year 2018. The last set of five waves up after that ended on February... If you look at a chart from 2010 to 2020 and count carefully you can find five sets of five waves up.... If you look at a Monthly chart from 1990 to February you can see five waves up in a different timeframe... Elliot waves are fractal, waves inside of waves all the way down to 1 minute... However the longer the time frame the more reliable the pattern. It is almost impossible to question that from 1990 to now matches all the Elliot Rules, but watching a 1" chart intraday the patterns can unfold in so many ways I don't pay any attention to EWaves intraday at such small timeframes.
Many people think Elliot Wave counting is a broken, or at least highly suspect Trading tool... In fact Elliot Waves are not a trading tool at all. They were created to explain that markets move in mathematically perfect patterns. Most corrections are 50 % or 62 %, but sometimes you will see a 38% correction or a 21 % correction and so forth... Elliot predicted a Mega Bull market cycle that would get us to where we are today and he was right. If you want to learn to count waves read Prectners book.
amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-Principle-Market-Behavior/dp/1616040815/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=prechter+elliot+wave&qid=1589385548&sr=8-1
If you want a tool to count the waves for you and give you trade setups talk to my old buddy, slash Nemesis Steve over in England who sells the MTPredictor... He sells it here at TradingView under the indicators, and you can try it for 30 days for free or could at one time. Why do i say nemesis? Well Steve can be a little cranky at times.. I say this fully tongue in cheek.
Note
Between 2010 to 2020 I meant to say 3 sets of 5 waves up, not 5 sets... I mention a bounce, what i meant to say we can very easily return to the Bull market that began in 2010.. This fits the Seasonality that my friend talks about.Lastly i want to say what i believe. Elliot Waves are a reality... If you pay me I will find them in any chart you can produce.. The people who say they are false just don't know or understand them.. And all the patterns they talk about have an equivalent Elliot pattern. I don't just use Elliot Waves... I have been using candlesticks for 40 years.. I traded using Market Profile for a while... I trace The Pivots, and wrote programs to trade using Donchian Channels under Trade Navigator, which is a Futures Trading Platform with an API.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.