New Month, Same Playbook?
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5661.00, up 51.00 on Friday and 8.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,623.00, up 229.75 on Friday and down 167.75 on the week
The page has turned to September, but the choppiness that characterized last week remains. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are off their best levels, surrendering the late Friday and month-end ramp. There was no major news overnight, and the soft tape pins indices back into last week’s range ahead of a jam-packed week of economic data. Today kicks things off with the closely watched ISM Manufacturing report for August at 9:00 am CT, which comes just after the final S&P Global Manufacturing read at 8:45 am CT. Tomorrow, we look to JOLTs, Thursday brings ADP and Services PMI, and the week is capped off with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.4% probability the Fed will cut rates by 100bps before yearend, and whether or not they do, we believe this probability is overzealous ahead of this week’s data dump.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped early this morning from the European open onward and are now back midrange. Our Pivot and point of balance at 5632 and 19,519 will be crucial in helping to determine whether this move is a blip and Friday’s ramp continues, or if sellers are in the driver’s seat. In the case of a rebound, the ceiling we defined last week is at 5661.75-5665.25 and 5669-5672.75 in the E-mini S&P and 19,623-19,656 and 19,690-19,705 in the E-mini NQ; a close above here is needed to break range and invite what is likely to be strong buy volume. To the downside, there is significant support in which neither index closed below last week and has buoyed waves of selling at 5593.25-5598 and 19,370-19,415.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5641-5646**, 5652.50-5656.50**, 5661.75-5665.25***, 5669-5672.75***, 5717.25-5721.25****
Pivot: 5632
Support: 5623**, 5608.75-5614.25***, 5602.75-5604.25**, 5593.25-5598****, 5573.50-5582.75***, 5558.50-5561.25**, 5547.50-5551.75***, 5526.75-5536.50***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,623-19,656***, 19,690-19,705***, 19,783-19,801***, 19,832-19,867***, 19,904-19,925****
Pivot: 19,519
Support: 19,434-19,451*, 19,370-19,415***, 19,337-19,342**, 19,227, 19,130**, 19,003****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5661.00, up 51.00 on Friday and 8.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,623.00, up 229.75 on Friday and down 167.75 on the week
The page has turned to September, but the choppiness that characterized last week remains. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are off their best levels, surrendering the late Friday and month-end ramp. There was no major news overnight, and the soft tape pins indices back into last week’s range ahead of a jam-packed week of economic data. Today kicks things off with the closely watched ISM Manufacturing report for August at 9:00 am CT, which comes just after the final S&P Global Manufacturing read at 8:45 am CT. Tomorrow, we look to JOLTs, Thursday brings ADP and Services PMI, and the week is capped off with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.4% probability the Fed will cut rates by 100bps before yearend, and whether or not they do, we believe this probability is overzealous ahead of this week’s data dump.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped early this morning from the European open onward and are now back midrange. Our Pivot and point of balance at 5632 and 19,519 will be crucial in helping to determine whether this move is a blip and Friday’s ramp continues, or if sellers are in the driver’s seat. In the case of a rebound, the ceiling we defined last week is at 5661.75-5665.25 and 5669-5672.75 in the E-mini S&P and 19,623-19,656 and 19,690-19,705 in the E-mini NQ; a close above here is needed to break range and invite what is likely to be strong buy volume. To the downside, there is significant support in which neither index closed below last week and has buoyed waves of selling at 5593.25-5598 and 19,370-19,415.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5641-5646**, 5652.50-5656.50**, 5661.75-5665.25***, 5669-5672.75***, 5717.25-5721.25****
Pivot: 5632
Support: 5623**, 5608.75-5614.25***, 5602.75-5604.25**, 5593.25-5598****, 5573.50-5582.75***, 5558.50-5561.25**, 5547.50-5551.75***, 5526.75-5536.50***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,623-19,656***, 19,690-19,705***, 19,783-19,801***, 19,832-19,867***, 19,904-19,925****
Pivot: 19,519
Support: 19,434-19,451*, 19,370-19,415***, 19,337-19,342**, 19,227, 19,130**, 19,003****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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