ATH For ETH Nothing To Be Excited About. Here's Why:

20 janv. 2021

With the hype machine in full force, it is important to put levels and RISK into perspective. In this brief analysis, I want to provide some perspective to those who are in this alt with varying expectations based on time horizon. Earlier today we trimmed out of more BTC, ETH and LTC from our long term portfolio.

While the current location is highly celebrated, it is highly vulnerable to selling which may have begun based on the current candle at the moment. The blue box on the chart is a reversal zone boundary and is an area where false break outs and fake outs are highly likely.

The next historical support at the moment is in the 880 to 890 area. Can price find support sooner? Sure but it has to prove it. Whole numbers like 1000 tend to have a psychological effect, but we do not count on that until evidence appears.

Day traders: If you are long, a tight stop is a good idea. Trying to make 100 pts, while risking 4 or 500 is not a profitable strategy.

Swing traders: if you entered this alt recently, your risk should be defined by the support around the 890 area. If price goes there, you have to be able to handle that kind of risk. If the thought of that has you losing sleep, you are likely too large and should reduce risk by taking a smaller loss or tightening stops ,etc. There is no guarantee it will reach the 890s, but that is where the retrace risk is at the moment.

Investors: Current levels are a great place to reduce risk by locking in profits if you own this from much lower prices. That doesn't mean to sell the entire position, but locking in some profits at highs is an effective behavior. If there is a significant retrace, you can buy that portion back, and if it continues higher like all the hype suggests, well you are still in. Trying to unload at the precise top is gambling.

When people are coming out and calling for outrageous price targets like 5K, that is often the sign of a near term peak. When things look there best, that is often the worst time to assume risk. Those who bought way before you are unloading on guess who?

I am not bearish on BTC, ETH or LTC over the long term, but I am keenly aware of short term risk and that is what I aim to point out here.

Thank you for considering my perspective, I hope you found it helpful.