The purchasing managers' index (PMI) data was published today, and although most of the readings were lower than expected, the data shows that the economic recovery continued at its amazing speed in August, according to the figures. To begin, the manufacturing index in France came in at 57.3, as expected by analysts (down from 58), while the services index came in at 56.4, below the 57 prediction, bringing the composite index to 56.4, which was below expectations of 57.
After the United States and Germany, Germany was the third nation to report, and although the services print came in higher than expected (61.5 vs. 61 predictions), the country saw a drop from the previous month. From 65.9 in February, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing fell to 62.7 in March (65 assumptions). This is the first time the index has fallen below 60 since February of this year and is an indication that concerns about slowing demand and growth may be coming to fruition, particularly given that Germany is the largest exporter in the Eurozone.
The values recorded in July were the highest in two decades, suggesting that business activity has been very strong throughout the summer months, as a rapid vaccine rollout has allowed more businesses to open their doors for consumers. Aside from that, the aggregate PMIs for the Eurozone came in lower than expected for August, although they are still firmly in the contractionary territory.
Staff shortages and wage inflation have had an impact on prices and margins, as evidenced by the fact that the manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom exceeded expectations, but the services PMI came in much lower than expected at 55.5 points, showing that the services sector is suffering from a lack of workers (59 forecasts).
In addition, the British Pound is recovering some ground this morning, after a week of severe losses that saw the GBP/USD exchange rate drop to a one-month low of just over 1.36 this past week. In the next weeks, the primary resistance level for the pair will be 1.3670, which will be followed by a zone of competing price forces between 1.3719 and 1.3802 because of the Fed's tightening monetary policy. A break below 1.3570 (23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement) would almost definitely result in a further drop below 1.3520, which would be the lowest point of the negative potential.
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