EURUSD - A Top-down Analysis (BEARISH BIAS)

22 avr.

I'm going to start from the yearly timeframe and work my way down to the monthly, weekly, and lastly the daily timeframe.

Here on the yearly timeframe we have price coming into a yearly SIBI a couple of times before displacing down into a yearly Sibi. After which, we have a close above equilibrium, and the subsequent year came up into a yearly Breaker (Body) before what looks now like a move lower to take out at the very least the previous year's low.

12-MONTH


On the 6-month timeframe we see a nested Sibi support my bearish bias/narrative. At this point I do not see any discount PD Arrays, but I will be mindful of consequent encroachment of large wick of the swing low's candle.

6-MONTH


On a closer review of the 1-month timeframe, we see a monthly BISI seemingly about to close below it. If that is the case, I would like to see a return into that to be treated as an iFVG. My current draw on liquidity is the relative equal lows (Body).

1-MONTH


On the weekly timeframe we have an even clearer picture. The recent displacement is more prominent, and we can see that a weekly SIBI was created into the monthly potential iFVG (BPR). High up at my second POI is a weekly Bearish Orderblock that may still be a viable possibility for price to reach towards. Inside of that is a daily Unicorn model, which can be seen on the current daily chart. Much of my narrative is based on red folder news coinciding with how I am anticipating the weekly candles to close, mostly anticipating it closing below the SIBIs/iFVGs. The closer price gets to one of the major red folder news events such as CPI/PPI/FOMC, the more extreme of a displacement I am expecting. It is also key that I see some sort of manipulation to take place to shake out the retail crowd.

1-WEEK


So, let's see what unfolds in the coming weeks.

Trade safe!

- R2F

30 avr.

Note

I like this

1 mai

Note

The monthly candle closed as anticipated. This is very good.

Time... and Price...

15 mai

Note

This is my last area for a short bias. Today is CPI. Yesterday PPI pushed price higher.
If price were to go lower, it would be today, either in price peaking in a consolidation then volatile drop, or engineered liquidity for a manipulation and then reversal to the downside. My POI currently is the New Week Opening Gap, around that area. If prices expands lower, I currently have a strong belief we may take the low or more for a possible 300-500 swing. Anyway, this is the idea, let's see how it goes.