EURUSD: some narratives
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Hi Guys,
this is a simplified picture of where this pair is.
Key pivot points are 1) US Central Bank began QT; 2) Omicron; 3) The Davos Agenda.
Main focus should be on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis that escalated in January 2022 following The Davos Agenda when, on 19 January, Biden predicted that Russia would launch an invasion on Ukraine.
To be continued...
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
this is a simplified picture of where this pair is.
Key pivot points are 1) US Central Bank began QT; 2) Omicron; 3) The Davos Agenda.
Main focus should be on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis that escalated in January 2022 following The Davos Agenda when, on 19 January, Biden predicted that Russia would launch an invasion on Ukraine.
To be continued...
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Note
In Oct.2021 the pair is supported just above 1.1500. On 2-3 Nov. the FED set the stage for QT and the move is triggered by the CPI data released on 10 Nov. The impulsive move towards sellside liquidity pool is stopped by Omicron breakout that rekindles fear and doubts over FED tightening. On Nov.30 Jerome Powell testify before Congress that FED may speed-up QT. EURUSD enters into a sideway range briefly breached to the upside before The Davos Agenda and then to downside right after into sellside liquidity.
Note
The move triggered by the CPI data release created an imbalance or FVG (Fair Value Gap) at 1.1500 level that was covered by the run made into The Davos Agenda triggered by the FOMC Minutes released on January 5th. Note
Following Omicron(2) and Powell(A) the pair enters into a horizontal range between violet lines that last for the entire month of December. Following FOMC minutes price run for liquidity higher into the FVG (and into downtrend pressure) and then lower into sellside liquidity pool (circled areas) pushed by FOMC meeting on 25-26 January. Note
February started with a pullback from sellside liquidity level that extended following ECB meeting on Feb.3 and Lagarde hawkish comments that surprised markets and triggered a 2nd run into FVG level. This run was stopped by the release of January US NFP data that suprised markets too. Lagarde's comments were bullish for EURO whilst NFP data were bullish for USD. 
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