EURUSD: without major moves
The US economy continues to show its resilience to monetary measures. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was much higher from market estimate of 0.3%. Preliminary Building Permits for March were standing at 1.458M, a bit lower from estimated 1.514M.
Inflation Rate final for March for the Euro Zone was standing at 2.4%, while core inflation remained at the level of 2.9%, both in line with market expectations. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Euro Zone was standing at 43.9 in April, much higher from anticipated 37.2. The same indicator for Germany was 42.9, again higher from the market estimate of 35.9. The Producer Price Index for Germany in March was standing at 0.2% on a monthly basis, a bit higher from expected 0%. At the same time, the same indicator was -2.9% on a yearly basis.
There was a little bit less volatility in the currency pair, compared to the week before. The market priced all known information, so the pair could stabilize above 1.6 level. Although USD entered into modest relaxation, still the Retail Sales for March made the market to make another move toward the 1.6 level. The pair's weekly spread was between levels 1.060 and 1.068. The 1.067, currently a resistance line, has been tested during the whole week. The RSI slightly moved from the oversold territory toward the level of 36, indicating that the market is still not ready for a clear move toward the overbought side. For the third week in a row moving averages of 50 and 200 days are moving together as one line, which is a situation not usually seen on the charts.
The week ahead is not bringing some major macro fundamentals which could significantly move markets. The US GDP Growth rate for Q1 will be published, but there are no expectations that there might be some surprises. Still, any deviation on this side might bring increased volatility of the currency pair. As per current charts, the markets will start the week ahead by testing 1.067 resistance. In case that it is broken, then 1.07 will be the market target. On the opposite side, 1.06 might be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in April for Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence in May for Germany,
USD: Durable Goods Orders for March, GDP Growth Rate for Q1, PCE Price Index for March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April
Inflation Rate final for March for the Euro Zone was standing at 2.4%, while core inflation remained at the level of 2.9%, both in line with market expectations. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Euro Zone was standing at 43.9 in April, much higher from anticipated 37.2. The same indicator for Germany was 42.9, again higher from the market estimate of 35.9. The Producer Price Index for Germany in March was standing at 0.2% on a monthly basis, a bit higher from expected 0%. At the same time, the same indicator was -2.9% on a yearly basis.
There was a little bit less volatility in the currency pair, compared to the week before. The market priced all known information, so the pair could stabilize above 1.6 level. Although USD entered into modest relaxation, still the Retail Sales for March made the market to make another move toward the 1.6 level. The pair's weekly spread was between levels 1.060 and 1.068. The 1.067, currently a resistance line, has been tested during the whole week. The RSI slightly moved from the oversold territory toward the level of 36, indicating that the market is still not ready for a clear move toward the overbought side. For the third week in a row moving averages of 50 and 200 days are moving together as one line, which is a situation not usually seen on the charts.
The week ahead is not bringing some major macro fundamentals which could significantly move markets. The US GDP Growth rate for Q1 will be published, but there are no expectations that there might be some surprises. Still, any deviation on this side might bring increased volatility of the currency pair. As per current charts, the markets will start the week ahead by testing 1.067 resistance. In case that it is broken, then 1.07 will be the market target. On the opposite side, 1.06 might be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in April for Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence in May for Germany,
USD: Durable Goods Orders for March, GDP Growth Rate for Q1, PCE Price Index for March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April
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