Euro priming up for 1.25?

1 sept. 2020

We’ve recently talked about the potential demise of the U.S. Dollar. What currency is poised to benefit the most from the devaluation of the dollar? Euro is the first thing that comes to mind.

Shortly after the safe-haven trade that pushed the dollar up against major currencies, the Euro started to rally over the U.S. dollar. After strongly piercing through 1.10, a relatively strong downtrend alongside piercing and 1.15 with relative strength, It is eyeing up a similar push up on these factors.

Technical trends point to a move higher in the Euro

Pointed above, we can see that the push past 1.10 – 1.11 broke a 2-year downtrend for the Euro. Furthermore, we can see a similar pattern where the Euro against the US Dollar consolidates for about two weeks before making a push upwards, usually on the back of positive data coming from Europe alongside harmful data coming from the United States. It shows that bulls are most likely just looking for any excuse to push the pair higher.

Euro wants to take the throne as the world’s reserve currency

This is quite unlikely ever to happen, as many commodities such as Gold and Oil are settled using the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the current headwinds pushing the U.S. Dollar downwards have been giving the world’s second reserve currency a time to shine.

Europe has relatively outperformed the United States regarding the Coronavirus, benefiting the Euro

The United States has consistently been posting 200,000+ new daily recorded Coronavirus cases, with the government doing little to nothing to prevent the further spread of the Coronavirus. Meanwhile, Europe has attempted to restrict the virus’s spread by imposing mandatory lockdowns in many countries. However, their reopening may be too early as we can see a resurgence in many countries in Europe. However, there is still a stark difference in how the governments have come together to fight the virus, and this may prove to be a game-changer in the long term for the Euro.

And obviously, U.S. dollar weakness

The U.S. Dollar is suffering strong headwinds due to inflation concerns, quantitative easing, and general risk-off sentiment in the markets. This may also signal a show shift in European bonds and equities, with U.S. investors looking elsewhere for yield.

Considering the U.S. dollar’s headwinds alongside recent strength in the Euro, it is likely we may see the Euro blow past 1.20 against the U.S. dollar on any positive news regarding Europe.