Being trend trader we gauge both the strength and direction of a trend using different unorthodox methods. Remember What a veteran like Warren Buffet has advised. "Think what others are not thinking".
100 DMA, Oh yes!!! very powerful tool to analyse a pair's direction. But most of traders make mistakes while using moving averages whether 100, 50 or 20 days/periods. So far, Our top trade of 2019 was on the most popular FX pair, EURUSD, on 28 JUNE. When we leveraged our account by 1:10 (which we very very rarely do and advise others the same). But the opportunity was so enticing or mouth watering that we couldn't resist. Let us share with you what made us so compelling about taking a SHORT position when the pair was heading the other way (apparently).
Okay, Let go back and start reading EURUSD from April 2018 when more than an year long up-trend was broken. There were more than 10 reasons,both fundamentally and technically, to believe that EUR's bullish run was over. you might have your own.[We will write about it some other time] Our current talk is WHY 28 June SHORT was our TOP TRADE. One might call us MAD, Oh Dear!!!! Look! On 3rd June trend-line was broken and retested with a strong bullish candle on 6th June. Pair is in C-wave(for those who use wave analysis or Elliot wave patterns), and C-wave has 4 big bullish candles from 19th June to 24 June. Pair is just consolidating here and might go for E-wave of 5th wave, There was no strong bearish signal apparently, except a bearish engulfing candle on 25 June, which seemed very weak with contrast to the parameters for bullish case. How comes, that you are talking about a SHORT position?
NOW LOOK, what 100 days moving average teaches us here.
How many times the pair has crossed above the 100 DMA line, answer is many times (about 10 times give or take). How many times it retained its position????? and Why it couldn't??? Why big brothers were jumping into selling opportunities through whole this period, What gave them the sense to take SHORT positions, On what grounds they were contrarian to bullish herd. These are all questions, which splashes into a good traders mind. If you think that a pair is gone move in a certain direction, ASK YOURSELF 10 TIMES, WHY?, WHY?, WHY?.
PAIR has once more broken the trend line and crossed 100 DMA. Which way the pair will go from here LONG/SHORT?
NOTE :My guess is as good as yours! :Ideas are absolutely personal.
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