EUR/USD: the Trump narrative

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Hi Guys,

the idea is that 1.03317 proved to be a strong supportive area where a triple bottom in divergence with RSI was formed. This prompted a pullback into descending trendline (1).
The cause of the pullback? US PRESIDENT TRUMP on Nov.7, 2016.
The pullback took 14 months to reach its top and it has been going down since.

Please Click & Play the following chart to see how price unfolded within the structure posted on March 9, 2019.

With forthcoming US Presidential Election scheduled on Nov.3, 2020 (vertical line) what do you think is going to happen?

Please add your comments and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask.

Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.

Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.

IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.

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With all these informations in mind the idea is to build a primary framework or structure and play with it. Let's https://start...https://www.tradingview.com/x/h0BeAdiB/

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...by adding a MA that make sense in order to see how it looks...let's try with a 100https://SMA...https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z2uqAPkL/

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What Is a Moving Average?
A moving average (MA) is a widely used indicator in technical analysis that helps smooth out price action by filtering out the “noise” from random short-term price fluctuations. It is a trend-following, or lagging, indicator because it is based on past prices. investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp

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In the following chart I've adjusted the RSI to follow price when below and when above the MA. When price is below SMA, indicator is below its middle being 50. When price is above SMA, indicator is above its 50 line.

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Next I use a 50 SMA with RSI at 20 which looks more accurate

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50SMA has been keeping price under it since Apr.30, 2018

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At the moment in the weekly timeframe indicators are bearish

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Let's ZOOM IN

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Let's switch to a lower timeframe (daily) with parameters unchanged

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Price crosses SMA and tests it. RSI crosses 50 line and tests it.

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Let's convert the 50SMA into a BB to see if of any help...

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Let's ZOOM in...

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We add a 20SMA that better follows standard RSI set at 14 + we highlight supports and short term https://trendlines...https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZGt76hcM/

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Time for considerations: In Oct 2019 price pulled back to green line area at 1.11806. But in Jan 2020 it dropped again, bouncing on previous support at approx 1.10 (double bottom). The drop has been firm. To note the light divergence with RSI right on supportive area at approx. 1.10. Following the drop it bounced from 1.10 to test the 50SMA before dropping again into same support again.

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The divergence with RSI may indicate a pullback. However this is not guaranteed as the drop since Jan 2020 has been firm and looks like pair want to breach 1.10 support towards 1.08792 (red horizontal line). Another element to take into consideration is that divergence is right on lower band of the bollinger. Maybe a pullback into descending 20SMA on the daily? But how and when?

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At this point we need to look at candlestick formation especially today's candlestick

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At this stage to enter long is premature because daily candlestick is not closed yet.

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We ZOOM in to see what's happening inside the circles area in the previous snapshot in the 4H timeframe:

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Price stopped at previous low made at the end of January. It squeezes into support. The spike was a tentative of a pullback but rejected.

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When we gradually reduce TFMs the MAs get closer to price. The 1H tells me that a pullback maybe unfolding but limited to the 50SMA (blue)

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RSI is pulling back from support at red horizontal line at 1.09919 into 50 line. Will price do the same into 50SMA pushing?

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Let's dig further...

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45min chart shows a big divergence with RSI...however the 50SMA is closer and looks like https://pushing...https://www.tradingview.com/x/xVCsBfoF/

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If the push by the 50SMA is successful it could break 1.09919...

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We try to smooth the noise by changing the 50BB into a 100BB

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and the 20SMA into 50https://SMA...https://www.tradingview.com/x/kJt5bR6m/

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We note that price action on 50SMA is similar to RSi action on 50 line.

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30min chart...

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MAs get closer to price and look pushy...

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15min chart

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We need to modify MAs to smooth noise and try to capture volatility...

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It doesn't look like pulling back right?

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Price pushed by 50SMA

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forexlive.com/news/!/short-eurusd-is-now-the-consensus-story-danske-bank-20200213

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poundsterlinglive.com/eurusd/12100-euro-dollar-rate-forecasters-tip-move-toward-parity-next-year

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fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-some-hope-for-bulls-202002200926?utm_source=tco&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=fxstreetnews

cozzamara

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