BUY EURUSD

16 mars 2016

Good afternoon dear colleagues, investors and traders.

Your attention is given fundamentally - technical analysis of the currency pair: EURUSD.

"Mario Draghi - a volley of all weapons, sorry for that purpose by"

Last week Mario Draghi announced a comprehensive stimulus that should lead to a weakening of the single currency, as well as to an increase in inflation.

- Reduced refinancing rate to 0%.
- Increasing incentives on E. 20 billion.
- Reduction of the deposit rate to - 0.40%.
- Heightening tool purchases in QE.
- Valid TLTROII program.

These actions were predicted by us 28.02.2015
(https://Https://vk.com/wermelgion?w=wall-73415082_1811/all)

The first 3 steps lead to increased risks in the bond market and the creation of it, "Liquidity Risk" (uvelechenie Prize for it).

But the fourth measure gives life to financial instruments and banks to refinance their obligations under other long-term loans from the ECB at 0%.

QE program is not able to cause inflation to rise, even on the horizon of 3 - 4 years.

TLTRO - 4 summer program of cheap loans to banks, inflation is not dispersed, as all loans that banks get forwarded to the financial markets.

Reduced refinancing rate - lowers interest rates on the bonds: for example Germany's bonds:

2 - year - 0.46%
5 - year - 0.25%
10 - year: 0.31%

ECB actions will not lead to higher inflation and tools using the ECB is only stimulatory DCT.

As these actions are reflected in the German bond market:

Germany Sovereign Bond Index (index of sovereign bonds)
- Moved into negative territory before: -0.6%

Investment Grade European Corporate Bond Index (investment grade corporate bond index)
- Significantly increased up to: 4.91%

The graphs you can see from this link:

bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/governme ..

For the single currency, this means only one thing: the ECB plans to lower interest rates by increasing the money supply, as well as to spur business and consumption by providing cheap credits. However, this does not happen. We see a great example of the Fed, and perhaps it will spur job growth, but in order that it would stimulate inflation need a certain time after the unemployment rate closer to the conditions of full employment.

We continue to be bullish on the single currency is already causing 3 factors:

1) Basic fundamentals are at a height of:

• The dynamics of balance of payments 25 V.
• The dynamics of the trade balance 22 B.

As well as the previous data on the inflow of portfolio investments also provide the physical demand for the single European currency.

2) Technical Analysis:

Probable upward trend in more detail below.

3) Mooving average: 200 and 300 day moving averages crossed again, showing the change in trend in the short term.

We maintain our buy from:
1.0861
1.0932
1.1027

Also, we are opening a new deal:

#Buy EURUSD:

- Price: 1.1100 - 1.1110
#TP: 1.14
#SL: Not provided.
- Volume: 0.10% of the deposit.

••Technical analysis :

Well visible on the daily timeframe, the pair is in the uplink. In a more global sense in the pair has been observed for quite a long consolidation. Couple holding steady above the important support level of 1.08. The primary objective for the pair is the mark of 1.14, after its breakthrough is expected in the second goal of 1.20.

The CFTC has not yet had time to get data on the ECB: - the amount of net Short Euro looks small.

•• iWM levels: (Weekly)

Pivot price: 1.1061

If the price is above the H4 timeframe, then we recommend the purchase with the objectives of: 1.1300, 1.1465, 1.1695

If the price is below the H4 timeframe, then we recommend the sale with the objectives of: 1.0905, 1.0663

•• iWM levels: (Monthly)

Pivot price: 1.1023

If the price is higher in the D1 timeframe, then we recommend the purchase with the objectives of: 1.1227, 1.1582, 1.1789.

If the price is lower than on the D1 timeframe, then we recommend the sale with the objectives of: 1.0666, 1.0459, 1.0110.

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