Fantom “Big W” Pattern developing

26 oct. 2023

I absolutely love it when we can discard more complex names for chart patterns, like the Bump and Run or ascending inverted scallops for more simplistic names. The Big W looks like a big W. And Fantom looks like it is in the second low of a big W. My source material for the Big W is Bulkowski’s The Pattern Site and I use his lettering system. TL:DR at the bottom.
thepatternsite.com/bigw.html

The Pattern and Trade
The Big W is identified by its steep fall to target and then a rise that is at least 10-20% of the low. Because we are looking at crypto we have a Point D that is over 200% above the low at B. The uptrend is provisionally supported by a bullish MACD cross below zero. I always like to visualize the MACD EMAs and we can see that price has gotten above the short span and is sandwich between it and the long span. Given my assessment on the macro crypto environment I suspect a quick move to D is very likely.

As a somewhat aggressive trader I am in my position now. A more cautious trader enters when price gets above point D. A 15x (non-margin) on this trade would suit me rather well. I don’t want to assume to much what I will do when price returns to the A level. I may rotate fully or partially this stack into another promising project or I may just hold.

About Fantom
Quite frankly the thing I know most about this project is the chart looks amazing. I am looking at layer 1 projects but everything else is noise to me if the chart looks bad. Fantom tries to solve the trilemma by using be asynchronous Byzantine Fault Tolerance? Great. Don’t really understand, the chart looks great. It uses Lachesis to be asynchronous Byzantine Fault Tolerant? Great, the chart looks good. They have Defi and GameFi. Great! The chart looks good.
fantom.foundation/fantom-faq/

A bit more seriously, I know that Fantom NFT platform atrion (artion.io/explore) uses chainlink as an oracle, which is nice given my interest in chainlink (my most recent idea was on link). You can link your metamask or Coinbase wallet and pay for your fantom NFT with other currencies and chainlink sets the exchange rate. Pretty neat.

Sidenote: I have never bought a NFT. There are some “waifu” NFTs on atrion and I am not sure what negative emotion best describes the idea that someone would buy a image of a waifu. I certainly am not spending money on one. But there may be some money in it for you if you want to.

I know it has fast finality and relatively high through put, and smart contracts. Probably why the chart looks so good. Also, this is a relatively low market cap coin. It is not advisable to try and put on large amounts of margin or large market buy orders. You may very likely find yourself in a buy way above your intended price as you draw up the available liquidity. If you do that in a margin account you can quickly blow yourself out.

TL:DR
The chart looks good, come help pump my bags. We are all going to make it.*

*Not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, and even if I was, I am not your advisor.

8 nov. 2023

Note

Things are looking pretty good. We have turned some major SMA resistance into support. I will be happy merely buying at will so long as price is below the 400 but once it gets above I will have to go to a more serious pull back strategy.



For another look, once we get above the EMA ribbon it will be time to buy below the EMA ribbon. Strong hands are going to be buying there.

9 nov. 2023

Note

I had some dry powder that I threw into FTM on this pull back. My operating assumption is that it is strengthening and preparing to channel upward and I will be seeing some upside shortly. There is a fair chance that I am a wee bit optimistic and price will retest downward sloping fuchsia trend line but quite frankly, I could not resist buying here.

13 nov. 2023

Note

Fantom is near the weekly gaussian midline and also close to the top of the Keltner channel. Very likely price action will need to wind up a bit before the uptrend continues. The W pattern I posted will hopefully have the power to overcome these technical resistances. I hope to have chances to buy daily lows over the next month or so.

2 déc. 2023

Note

I have tunneled down to the 4 hour time frame for this chart. I think that is appropriate given the early stages of this move. As this move matures it will be risky to do TA at such a low time frame. But, as I think this move just began I think I am ok. As the move develops I will have to avoid lower time frames.

I have the 4 hour Keltner Channel as the only indicator. We can see that price dipped below the 4 hour keltner at times and the channel turned red. Price has just popped above the 4 hour Keltner channel. I think we are in the beginning of the next uptrend after this  two week pull back.

Over the next several weeks I think we will get a 3x out of Fantom as it barrels towards the 1.618 extension.

11 déc. 2023

Note

I just added to my spot position on Fantom. I am not going to, and have not been, posting updates whenever I buy pull backs but from time to time I might. For me, this is a simple buy. Have some extra cash I had saved up (above and beyond what I need to take care of Christmas) and I have been waiting for a pull back. The hour chart shows we reached a fib extension of 1.618 and then when price returned I was able to buy the 1.414.

When it comes to phrases we can often disagree on what they mean or use them in serpate ways. For example, "Show me a high and I show you a buy" by Jesse Livermore is generally used for break out traders who don't want to be stuck in range bound positions. That is very good.

But I also find the notion is fairly adaptable to buying pull backs, in particular "Adam" tops. Price rushes into a level and faces a strong rejection and creates a wick at a local high. When that high gets taken out price will get above that previous swing high and correct into it. Price then consolidates and the trend continues.



Since I believe this market is trending upwards due the Big W pattern I have been buying pull backs since I rotated my chainlink position. I have been adding to that position on pull backs with my allotted crypto savings after each paycheck. Some times the pull back is right there before me on payday and sometimes I have to wait a week or so. I think we are still in the early stages off this market so frequent adds are fine. When the move gets going and we get multi month pull backs I will have to be more patient.

27 janv.

Note

It is beginning to look like this first major pull back of this bull market for Fantom is done. A look at the Weely EMA ribbon shows strong buying on top of the ribbon and a nice long reversal wick.



The daily chart looks amazing. Hidden divergences are my favorite type because they predict continuation. As the saying goes "the trend is your friend until the end" and playing for continuation is easier than reversal, especially when you have hidden bullish divergence on your side.


I think we could very easily see mostly green weekly candles with fair body lengths for the next several months.

19 mars

Note

Fantom has had an absolute banger of a quarter (currently up over 120%). It is now above cleanly above the weekly EMA ribbon and with 12 days to go on the month it is set to have the MACD cross zero. I suspect good things over the next year as larger and older coins distribute into small caps.

15 mai

Note

Fantom has had a bannger of a day, sitting at 10% right now. It tested the black triangles previous resistance as support and did the same with teh EMA ribbon. That is a massive bullish signal.

I suspect the price will be making a quick move to the 0.786 where it will have its next major stall. Maybe even retesting the 0.618 level as support.

Should be exciting.

13 août

Note

Fantom has had quite the viscous pull back over the last several months. I was expecting a pull back and a retest of the triangle previous resistance as support but this was much deeper and intense than I had anticipated.

Price appears to have found a lot of buying pressure underneigh the 0.236 fib level which co-occurs at both the bottom of a green gaussian channel as well as the 2 ATR Keltner channel.


Fantom continues to look like an attractive buy none the less. But this has been a good reminder just how exaggerated crypto impulses can be both to the upside and downside.