GBPAUD Long Term Analysis

Hello, traders. I don't like big timeframes. But for those, who is interested in long term trading, I dedeicate this analysis.
So situation here is not very good. Price made a New structure low and price will probably break 1.6 level. ( lowest yellow line). But what is important is time. When price will break it. I see 3 possible scenarios:
1. Price goes down now and breaks yellow line.
2. Price goes to white rectangle and then goes down. Why it may happen? We have a supply zone there and left sholder of quasimodo. and price often respects these levels.
3. This scenario is the best for trading because you will have smaller SL. Price pullbacks to yellow rectangle, gives signal to short and goes down.
Remember: You should confirm my expectations with your own analysis
Please note: I did not consider here fundamental analysis because I usually trade on 1-15 minutes charts that's why my expectations may not come true.