Crucial Support level of 1.25 - Free Fall if it doesnt hold

31 déc. 2024

Following on the same analysis from early December; we see the Pound come under increasing pressure given the disappointing data and economic situation in the UK - inflation remains elevated; unemployment is increasing after the new budget and taxes and growth has trickled down to a humongous 0% - there are reports from retailers and shops that even the sales in the lead up to Christmas were very weak so heavy discounts may come in January to try and spur some spending.

We are unlikely to get any majorly positive data and should the BoE be forced into cutting rates in February by more than expected, this support level of 1.25 wont hold and we may get a free fall. However, a pullback may be expected near term given how far this has been sold.

I will short the Pound should the support get broken clearly given this 1.25 level could form triple bottom as per chart.

Good luck and Happy New Year everyone!
Hope this helps and remember not to rush into any position - no FOMO!

2 janv.

Transaction en cours

NY 10am option expiries - we have £1bn worth at the 1.25 level - so expect the price to be defended at 1.25 till later today - no trade taken on shorting just yet.

6 janv.

Note

Short here at 1.2530
TP 1.23
SL 1.2710

Retested peak of channel - good luck all!

8 janv.

Trade fermée manuellement

Closed at 1.2330 for a 200 pip profit mainly based on how far the USD has strengthened and dont want to hold over NFP numbers - may have a retracement but looks like longer term 1.20 is not far in sight.

Good luck guys - will update an idea once it pulls back - staying out for now - the last 40-50 days have been amazing with 400+ pip profits.