GBPUSD - 2 LONG SCENARIOS

11 nov. 2021

CFTC Speculative Net Positions against the Dollar at -1.280, which it is extremely positive for the cable and the price didn't react yet (Data divergence). Bank valuation extremely optimistic too, expecting a price of 1.37 by the end of November, and an uptrend from that point until November of 2022. in fact, GBP/USD is sitting at 1.3400, which is almost at the minimum of the valuation for this month, connecting with a very important technical support at around 1.3390. Today, the probabilities of a rate hike from the BoE on the 16th of December are at 52.5%, which is the first time that it is more than 50% since the last meeting. Technicals: Divergence on the Rsi, price on an important support zone. GBPUSD

11 nov. 2021

Note

Bad GDP q/q data (1.3% vs 1.5% forecast), which changed the probabilities of a rate hike to 53%. This means that this data is bearish on the very short term, but increases the chance of a big jump on this pair next month.