GBP/USD Sustains Three-Week Rally, Holding Above 1.2550
GBP/USD has rebounded to the 1.2550 level after nearing 1.2500 in the latter half of the day following a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data of 199,000 in November. Despite the recent recovery, the pair remains on track to secure a three-week winning streak. GBP/USD may face immediate support at 1.2550-1.2560 (static level, Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest uptrend). Closing below this level in the 4-hour chart could attract technical sellers, opening up the possibility of an extended decline to 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2470 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%).
On the upside, 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) is considered a temporary resistance level before 1.2640 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart) and 1.2700 (static level, psychological level). GBP/USD closed positively on Thursday but failed to attract additional buyers early on Friday. The last time the pair was seen below 1.2600, with market focus shifting to the US November labor market data.
Improved risk sentiment led to a loss in the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, helping GBP/USD record a small daily gain. On Friday, US stock index futures trading was mixed, suggesting investors should exercise caution.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment report is expected to show an increase of 180,000 in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) in November. Earlier this week, US employment-related figures indicated loosening conditions in the labor market. A disappointing NFP print below 150,000 could reaffirm the labor market recovery and immediately pressure the USD.
On the other hand, a strong NFP index above 200,000 could counter market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy change starting in March and help the USD maintain its position by the end of the week. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 60% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates to 25 basis points in March.
On the upside, 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) is considered a temporary resistance level before 1.2640 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart) and 1.2700 (static level, psychological level). GBP/USD closed positively on Thursday but failed to attract additional buyers early on Friday. The last time the pair was seen below 1.2600, with market focus shifting to the US November labor market data.
Improved risk sentiment led to a loss in the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, helping GBP/USD record a small daily gain. On Friday, US stock index futures trading was mixed, suggesting investors should exercise caution.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment report is expected to show an increase of 180,000 in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) in November. Earlier this week, US employment-related figures indicated loosening conditions in the labor market. A disappointing NFP print below 150,000 could reaffirm the labor market recovery and immediately pressure the USD.
On the other hand, a strong NFP index above 200,000 could counter market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy change starting in March and help the USD maintain its position by the end of the week. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 60% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates to 25 basis points in March.
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