“hard” Brexit & pound prepares for the worst

17 juil. 2019

Great Britain expects “hard” Brexit. Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson faced off in leadership debate. The candidates were asked about the Irish border (which will become the only land border between the UK and the EU after Brexit). Both were clear that the issue will not be resolved with a positive outcome. The odds of No-deal Brexit are rising. Due to this, the pound treated with selling yesterday. Back
to status in employment on the UK labour market. The estimated employment rate : + 25K with a forecast + 45K. Requirements to receive unemployment compensation rose to + 38K (last month figure 24.5K). Brexit continues to be the main driver of everything that happens with the pound over the last couple of years. It's a buying opportunity as the pound price is low.

It is necessary to act without “fanaticism”. Recall, new UK prime minister will appear next week.

Negotiations are progressing well towards concluding an agreement between the US and China. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer may travel to Beijing for trade negotiations. US retail sales rose 0.4 per cent that is better than expected. However, we still do not plan to buy a dollar and we will continue to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market

Our trading recommendations for today: sell the dollar, oil and the Russian ruble. We buy safe-haven asset: gold and Japanese yen.