FO above 1.26 into H1 supply at 1.2639/1.2618?

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) offers clear structure on the monthly timeframe, with the latter prompting a notable upper shadow in June.

Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008, placing 1.1904/1.2235 support in a vulnerable position.

Daily timeframe:

Buyers and sellers recently clashed south of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2692, with Monday coming forward and chalking up a bearish outside day. This was initially well received by sellers Tuesday, testing lows at 1.2479. Yet, later in the session, GBP/USD staged a notable recovery, reclaiming earlier losses and establishing a ‘dragonfly doji’, a bullish reversal candlestick pattern. Given the pattern has not formed off support, though, this may be insignificant.

Demand at 1.2192/1.2361 is still in view, as is supply from 1.3021/1.2844, situated above the aforesaid simple moving average.

H4 timeframe:

Leaving supply at 1.2720/1.2682 behind, traders observed Monday dethrone channel support (1.2257), retest the broken level as resistance, and drop to demand at 1.2462/1.2506 on Tuesday, standing just ahead of support at 1.2453.

Buyers, as you can see, established position off the aforesaid demand.

H1 timeframe:

Heading into US trade Tuesday, price connected with the 1.25 level, albeit piercing to lows at 1.2480. The rally from the round number proved decisive, ultimately toppling the 1.2550 region and throwing light on nearby resistance at 1.2581 and the 1.26 level which joins closely with the 100-period simple moving average. Interestingly, above 1.26 we can see supply resides close by at 1.2639/1.2618.

In addition, indicator-based traders will acknowledge the RSI value closing in on overbought territory.

Structures of Interest:

H1 resistance at 1.2581 may appeal this morning, though having 1.26 stationed above, this may act as a magnet to price.

Another scenario worth highlighting is a possible whipsaw through 1.26 into H1 supply at 1.2639/1.2618. Although enough to potentially deliver a downside move, there is little higher timeframe confluence supporting the setup, therefore, 1.2581 could serve as support, if not the 1.2550 range is likely to cap downside.
Multiple Time Frame AnalysisSupply and DemandSupport and Resistance

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