GBPUSD, more sell off in the way?
GBPUSD / 1D
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
Fundamentals:
Based on the last Testemonial from Powell:
1. Rates will go higher than previously expected
2. The Fed doesn't think they have overtightened and need to do more
3. They think they can sort out inflation without 'significant'
downturn (notice the abandonment of 'soft landing'
4. Unemployment needs to rise.
5. States the road of bringing down inflation will be 'bumpy'
Correlations:
US10Y is inverted for 247 days.
US03M is inverted for 137 days.
New rate hikes at the 1M, 3M , 6M and 2Y
EFFR @4.48%
RRP 2.168T, which has increased from 2.412T from the previous week
We need another 100bts to get to 5.5% Fud rates with probablity of 56%, so maybe +25/50bts in March, May and June.
Technical analysis: The GBPUSD currency pair has been experiencing a bearish trend , with the price consistently breaking higher. Furthermore, on the monthly time frame, the price has rejected a major key level. In addition, The price has printed a double top on the daily time frame. the Dollar index DXY has also rejected a macro level, indicating further strength in the dollar. This, coupled with the US10Y bond market breaking its structure higher, makes it seem like a wise decision to invest in the dollar during its pullback phase.
The scenario I'm looking at:
Shorting previous resistance.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
Fundamentals:
Based on the last Testemonial from Powell:
1. Rates will go higher than previously expected
2. The Fed doesn't think they have overtightened and need to do more
3. They think they can sort out inflation without 'significant'
downturn (notice the abandonment of 'soft landing'
4. Unemployment needs to rise.
5. States the road of bringing down inflation will be 'bumpy'
Correlations:
US10Y is inverted for 247 days.
US03M is inverted for 137 days.
New rate hikes at the 1M, 3M , 6M and 2Y
EFFR @4.48%
RRP 2.168T, which has increased from 2.412T from the previous week
We need another 100bts to get to 5.5% Fud rates with probablity of 56%, so maybe +25/50bts in March, May and June.
Technical analysis: The GBPUSD currency pair has been experiencing a bearish trend , with the price consistently breaking higher. Furthermore, on the monthly time frame, the price has rejected a major key level. In addition, The price has printed a double top on the daily time frame. the Dollar index DXY has also rejected a macro level, indicating further strength in the dollar. This, coupled with the US10Y bond market breaking its structure higher, makes it seem like a wise decision to invest in the dollar during its pullback phase.
The scenario I'm looking at:
Shorting previous resistance.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
Note
Macro changed. I'll be carefull with this setupTransaction en cours
GBPUSD update, stop should be at Breakeven.
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Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.