GBPUSD UK experiencing stagflation

23 oct. 2023

The pound exchange rate experienced considerable turmoil last week following the release of weak statistics. The latest blow was Friday's lower-than-expected retail sales and the result of a by-election. I'm not sure if UK politics is playing a big role at the moment so I won't delve into that right now, but last week's retail sales figures spoke for themselves, especially after inflation was higher than expected. What the data actually shows is that inflation in the UK is not currently driven by demand. Therefore, we see a drop in demand and a rise in prices, which is known as stagflation. This puts the BoE in a difficult position, as it is not as simple as raising interest rates to curb inflation, and other factors need to be considered. The Bank of England's decision in November is expected to leave interest rates at least on hold, but a modest 25 basis point rise is also expected.