News background & trading ideas for 05/02/2019

5 févr. 2019

Monday, as expected, has been a quite calm fundamentally. However, there was some news, so let’s talk about it.

The Eurozone has traditionally been marked by weak economic data. In particular, Sentix Investor Confidence Index in February was -3.7 with the forecast of -1.3 and the value for the previous period at the level of -1.5. The United Kingdom also distinguished itself. The business confidence index PMI in construction in January came close to recessive values (50.6, with a forecast of 52.2 and a December value of 52.8). In general, the United Kingdom, with its uncertainty, continues to harm primarily itself. From the latest news: Nissan stated they are not going to produce a new model of X-Trail on the British factory. The reason is uncertainty with Brexit and conditions of the UK exit from the EU. Tellingly, even guarantees and insurances from the Government of Great Britain didn’t help. And this was not an isolated incident, so there is much to consider. And that’s precisely what Theresa May does so far. PM has formed a work-group on preparing a new variant of the deal. Our position on the pound is unchanged so far: looking for points for purchases intraday and mid-term.

Quite unexpectedly, for most experts, industrial orders in the United States dropped sharply (-0.6% m/m with a forecast of +0.3% m/m). Data on orders for durable goods also disappointed, as they were 2 times worse than forecasts (+0.7% m/m with the forecast of +1.5% m/m). All this is happening amid Trump's other threats to impose a state of emergency. The reason is that unblocking the funding of government bodies has a good chance of remaining temporary because a compromise with the Democrats has not been found. In this light, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales.

Oil some slow down its growth on Monday. But yet the general fundamental background is propitious for assets quotes growth (at least in short-term perspective). OPEC cuts production, Venezuela gets deeper and deeper into an abyss of anarchy and chaos, and the US shelves seem to be experiencing growth difficulties. So we continue to recommend looking for points for oil purchases intraday. And simultaneously keeping mid-term short positions on the asset.

Decline in quotes of gold on Monday we perceive as an opportunity to buy cheaper. As long as the asset is above 1295, we see no threats for long positions. You can buy from the current with the adding in the area of 1295 and stops below 1290. At the same time, profits can be placed up to 1350.